Weekly Value Angle (4)

Keir Starmer is now 8/11 to exit in 2026. Many shrouds think he should be slightly shorter considering what he’s facing this year. I’m not really tempted to go in again at those odds but I do think he is currently odds on to survive pre-May. Things will get far more serious for him after the local election results.

There is a new market available, some firms are offering prices on his 2026 exit in monthly brackets. This market didn’t appeal to me at first due to the less value on offer in the combined months compared to the overall 2026 exit price. Now we’re a month in and can see the situation a little more clearly, especially now Andy Burnham has been blocked to stand at the upcoming Gorton & Denton By-Election. I have found some value below.

April - June 2026 exit looks short enough @ 9/4. This only gives the Labour Party a few weeks at the back end of May, a leadership challenge and everything that goes with it will take a little longer to organise. We also have the Kings Speech pencilled in too, a move by N10 to try and hinder a quick challenge after the local elections.

That leaves us with both July - September @ 7/2 and October - December @ 18/1.

They both are value, both prices will shorten the further we get into this year. It’s a great alternative to playing the 2026 exit date at odds on.

Starmer to Exit between July - December 2026 @ 5/2 (Skybet/Paddypower/Ladbrokes/Coral)

Written by @brad_dylon.