Weekly Review (5)

PBC Value Angle (This is where we expect the price of the highlighted selections below to shorten)

Next Prime Minister Market

Starmer's tenure looks to be coming to a sharp end, with the PM now embroiled in his own Porfumo affair in the form of Peter Mandelson's involvement with Jeffrey Epstein. Our attention thus turns to the next Prime Minister market.

If Starmer were to exit before May, it could be too early for Angela Rayner to make a move, and the soft-left have made it clear that they will not allow a coronation of Wes Streeting. Rayner might struggle to gain sufficient support for a leadership bid if the transition happens too quickly, as she would need time to solidify her position and build broader backing within the party. This could lead to a more open and unpredictable leadership race. The soft-left will probably back a candidate who represents a distinct shift away from Starmer’s direction.

We both feel we should be taking on the current top-two in the market if Starmer looks to be heading out the door before May. Wes Streeting has often been touted as a future leader of the party. However, as a die-hard Blairite, the former health secretary will struggle to win the membership vote which evidently remains on the left-of-centre. The people's champion Angela Rayner, meanwhile, may see her leadership bid frustrated by her continued dealings with HMRC. The longer Starmer stays in power, the greater her chances are of becoming Labour leader in the future. However, with his exit seemingly imminent, Rayner will be in no position to challenge, having yet to pay back what she owes to HMRC.

With the timing of Starmer's exit and the current make-up of the Labour membership, it seems that the soft left of the party is best placed to claim the leadership. But with Rayner currently out the running, and Burnham out of parliament, there's an opportunity for an outsider to take on the mantle.

Ed Miliband (20/1)

Ironically, Miliband has never been closer to becoming Prime Minister in his life. His green agenda has been one of the only shining lights of this Labour government, in the eyes of the left, making him the most popular cabinet member amongst the membership. A recent poll found that only two members of the Labour party could receive a majority support amongst MPs, the trade unions, AND the membership - they were Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham. However, only one of them is currently in parliament...

Lucy Powell (33/1)

As Deputy Leader, she already has national recognition and credibility, making her a safe, competent option in a post-Starmer race. She’s well-liked by the membership and avoids the factionalism that can alienate parts of the party. Powell isn’t over-identified with Starmerism, giving her room to offer both continuity and a reset. Her favourability with members is a quiet but important asset. She is generally well-liked, trusted, and seen as authentic rather than overly stage-managed. That makes her a viable unity candidate at a moment when members may be looking for reassurance and competence rather than another internal battle. Her closeness to Andy Burnham and coming from up-north is also another positive factor.

Louise Haigh (110/1)

Haigh is well-regarded among the membership for her authenticity, energy, and communication skills. She’s not only popular but also seen as someone who can unite the party’s diverse factions. She doesn’t come with the baggage of being too closely associated with either the old Blairite faction or the more hard-left positions, positioning her as a candidate who could bridge Labour’s internal divisions. Haigh’s out-of-Cabinet status gives her a degree of independence, allowing her to position herself as a fresh alternative to the Starmer era. In a race where the membership is likely to seek a leader who can provide a fresh start, Haigh’s profile as an outsider combined with her deep understanding of policy and her strong grassroots appeal makes her a solid choice.

If you back all three candidates above against the rest of the field it pays 10/1. If you add Rayner and have all four soft-left candidates against the field it pays 3/1.

PBC have consistently taken a position against Nigel Farage becoming the next Prime Minister, and have instead exploited this market due to the significant percentage Farage occupies in the book. This has left the door wide open for serious value against him, particularly with the growing likelihood of Keir Starmer’s exit before the next General Election. The market is currently overvaluing Farage’s chances, and this presents a clear opportunity to capitalize on the mispricing. However, firms must proceed with caution, given that Farage is still most likely to be in the running after the next general election is called. Farage lay price is currently (8.0) and we expect that to continue to drift out sharply as we go further into 2026.

Market Mover

Nick Timothy now into 14/1 from 33/1 to be the Next Conservative Leader, this was in last week’s Value angle.

Greens now into EVS to win the Gorton & Denton by-election.

Plaid now into 4/11 to win Most Seats in the Welsh Election.

One to watch

Next Prime Minister of Hungary market is one to keep an eye on in a close betting heat.

Victor Orban has now been in power for 16 years. Often regarded as one of Europe's most marmite figures, it's fair to say that Orban has been a popular figure at home. However, with continued geopolitical tensions with European allies and rising prices throughout the country, his support has finally begun to wane. A united opposition, stretching from the centre-right to the left, tactical voting, and rapidly changing age demographics may be enough to see Peter Magyar get over the line. Recent elections in central and eastern Europe has seen similar patterns of united opposition defeating right-wing populists in countries like Poland, Moldova, and Romania. Seen as the "bad boys" of Europe, Orban has often frustrated the interests of the EU, using his veto on a number of important issues concerning immigration and Russia. One would suspect that the Hungarian opposition may benefit from some sort of support from the EU, whether politically or financially. The defeat of Orban would certainly be one less headache for the EU.

Polymarket currently gives Magyar a 53% chance of winning this election. Victor Orban’s chances have dropped 18% since this market opened, surprised to see 11/10 for Magyar available with both VirginBet and BetMGM. There is no odds against left currently on the Betfair exchange.