Gorton & Denton By-Election

The 5/1 for Labour seems too big. Early polling has shown them to be neck and neck with both the Greens and Reform, around the 28-30% range.

A Labour red wall defence in the face of both a rise in right-wing populism and the threat of the pro-Gaza left, Keir Starmer hanging on to the Labour leadership by a bear thread, and Andy Burnham looming in the shadows, this by-election seems oddly similar to the Batley and Spen by-election of 2021.

On that occasion, Labour surprised everyone by clinging onto the seat to save Keir Starmer's job. This was a time where Labour languished in a similar position in the polls as that of today.

The Prime Minister's party currently holds a very healthy 13k+ majority in the Greater Manchester constituency, in spite of a 16% drop in their vote share at the last general election. Despite favourable demographics (large Muslim and student population) for the Greens, they will have to share the left-wing protest vote with the Workers' Party who have also thrown their hat into the ring.

Reform have announced Matt Goodwin as their candidate - a very controversial figure, particularly for those on the left who view him as an extremist. Consequently, we may see a rally around the candidate on the left of centre in the strongest position to defeat Reform. I am yet to be convinced that the Greens are that candidate. Evens is far too short for me for such a swing.

Reform certainly have a ceiling in this constituency. Even if the Tories were to lose their deposit, there isn't actually much more right-wing vote Reform can squeeze out of them.

With the protest vote being split and a constituency demography unfavourable for a right-wing party, I'd be tempted to back the 5/1 for Labour to cling on to the seat.