Weekly Review (3)
PBC Value Angle (This is where we expect the price of the highlighted selections below to shorten)
Nick Timothy (Next Conservative Leader) @ 33/1 Ladbrokes / Coral
With Robert Jenrick defecting to Reform there is now an opening for a potential candidate on the right of the party. He’s an impresseive politican who is willing to go where many others won’t, especially on cultural and social issues. His new role as shadow Justice secretary will raise his profile and he also has a strong presence on the socials. Its no surprise that Badenoch has chosen someone like him to replace Jenrick in this role. Far too big of a price here and a good B2L opportunity or one to keep onside for later down the road, his price will shorten.
Tom Tugendhat (Next Conservative Leader) @ 22/1 Betvictor / Skybet
“Never one to shy away from a fight, the current geopolitical climate could be perfect for Tom Tugendhat to have another crack at the leadership. The MP for (forgotten) has always consistently taken the hardest stand against Russia, to the point of military escalation. He has also been very vocal in his criticism of Trump. Tugendhat was also the only candidate in the last leadership election to openly condemn the Boris premiership - a clean break from the past. I suspect the party membership will have shifted more towards the centre since 2024 and at a time when fear of Donald Trump’s America reigns over public opinion, voices like Tugendhat’s may come back into favour. As the biggest name on the ‘wet’ side of the Tory, his name will be in the mix - the 22/1 will undoubtedly shorten”
Kemi Badenoch to NOT be Conservative Leader at the Next General Election @ 11/10 Betfred
“A classic case of the Westminster bubble syndrome. “Oh but she looked good on PMQs” some say. Firstly, who cares? The average member of the public certainly doesn’t. Secondly, I would be very worried if someone didn’t look impressive in the face of Keir Starmer. The current Tory leader has already taken a huge beating last May, she’s about to be reduced to almost zero seats in Wales, Scotland, and London, and she’s just lost the most popular member of her party in a very amateurish way. The Tory party has a history of smashing the panic button the nearer we get to a general election - a reminder that Boris was still level with Labour in some polls when he was ousted. She is sure to face a plethora of defections leading up to and after another shambolic set of local elections, making her look extremely weak and incapable of uniting the party.
She was 1/7 at one point to not make the next General election and was one of our bankers this time last year at a similar price. Odds against seems a steal when you take into account that 99% of the country doesn’t watch PMQs”
Market Mover
Weekly Review (2) Value angle’s have all shortened - Trump Impeachment now into 5/6 from 5/4 and 2026 Impeachment now 5/2 from 4/1.
Donald Trump to Exit 2029 or Later is now 4/6 (Ladbrokes / Coral) - That’s the biggest price we have seen.
Suella Braverman Next Conservative MP to defect to Reform now into 5/4.
One to watch
Andy Burnham to become an MP in 2026 @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes / Coral) and the potential shake up of the Next Prime Minister market over the next few months.
Rumours of Lib Dem MPs getting a bit tired of Ed Davey, they have hardly moved in the polls despite the big two parties imploding. Exit Date and Next Liberal Democrat Leader markets to keep an eye on.