Weekly Review (2)
PBC Value Angle (This is where we expect the price of the highlighted selections below to shorten)
Will Donald Trump be Impeached? YES @ 5/4 WilliamHill
Donald Trump Impeached in 2026 @ 4/1 Coral / Ladbrokes
To this day, Donald Trump is the only president in US history to have been twice impeached. If the Dems were already trigger happy in his first term then the hat-trick seems inevitable. Mounting legal cases, the Epstein files, invasion of a sovereign nation, threats to a NATO ally and, God forbid, the breaking of international law. The list of ways in which the Dems could impeach the 47th president continues to grow. With the GOP house majority already at a record low, it would only take 3 or so Republicans to get the Democrats over the line. Even if they don’t wish to pull the trigger yet, the House is very likely to flip in their favour these Midterms. However, I suspect that, were Trump to continue his aggressive interventionist approach towards US allies, the Dems may see an impeachment motion as a way of putting pressure on so-called moderate Republicans in Midterm marginal seats – both in the House and Senate.
Laila Cunningham NOT to be Next London Mayor — She has shortened far too much, now into 9/4. If this market was available on the exchanges she would be a great L2B opportunity, the value now lies in finding the potential Labour candidate if Khan doesn’t run. I personally think he doesn’t due to circumstances surrounding Labour and its one too many in my opinion.
Next serving MP to join Reform UK? Robert Jenrick @ 10/1 Coral / Ladbrokes — Beginning to think the writing is on the wall for Jenrick, if the tories decide to stay with Kemi in 2026 and he isn’t given the Shadow Chancellor role he could decide to make a move over after the poor local election results in May. He may not be the first defection but at 10/1 I think there is some value.
Market Mover
Weekly Review (1) Value Angles have shortened with many firms, surprised to still see StarSports at 22/1 (Next President) and 8/1 (Republican Nominee) Marco Rubio still available. Its a brilliant price that you will not see again.
Donald Trump now into 4/1 to Exit in 2026 and now 4/7 to Exit 2029 or later.
UK General Election 2029 or later has now drifted to EVS.
Keir Starmer to exit in 2026 has drifted out slightly to 4/5.
One to watch
Marine Le Pen’s appeal against her embezzlement sentence begins tomorrow in a legal case that will shape French politics for the next decade. Until the outcome is known, France’s leading ‘far-right’ party currently stands at the bifurcation of two paths. One of the populist right which is more protectionist, Gaullist and Eurosceptic, led by Le Pen, and one which is of the more traditional right which adheres to more liberal economics, is more wedded to the European idea, and offers an olive branch to the mainstream centre-right parties to form a coalition led by Jordan Bardella. I’ll let you figure out which politics the establishment is more likely to stomach.
We tipped Bardella last year at 3/1, believing his price was overvalued due to the uncertainty around Le Pen’s ongoing appeal. With that appeal likely to fail, and with polls suggesting that Bardella’s main rival Edouard Phillipe is likely to lose his mayoral election in March, expect Bardella’s price to keep shortening. It may be last orders for that 5/2!
Jordan Bardella (Next French President) @ 5/2 Betfred / Ladbrokes / Coral