Weekly Review (1)
PBC Value Angle (This is where we expect the price of the highlighted selections below to shorten)
Marco Rubio @ 22/1 (US Presidential 2028 Winner) Starsports (20/1 currently available with 6 firms)
Marco Rubio @ 8/1 (Republican Candidate) Starsports / Betfred / Ladbrokes / Coral
Whatever you think of him, Marco Rubio has certainly stamped his authority in US politics this week. Indeed, the secretary of state has been front and centre of every news outlet as the brains behind the Venezuelan military operation.
A recent Gallup poll found that Rubio could brag of a 41% approval rating – the second-most popular American political figure, behind only Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on 44%.
Traditionally, Rubio has represented the more neo-conservative wing of the GOP. His time as secretary of state, however, has helped him to greatly increase his popularity amongst the MAGA crowd. If he can continue to tap into that support, Rubio could be seen as the unifying figure between the two fractions in the party. If he does decide to run, Rubio will almost certainly be in the final two with JD Vance which means his price will likely continue to shorten as the years goes on.
Market Mover
Politics Betting Club New Year Nap has shortened significantly this week, Reform Most Seats Runner-Up (Scottish Election) now into 6/5 from 9/4.
Laila Cunningham (Next London Mayor) now into 5/2 from 13/2, she has shortened significantly after today’s announcement.
Kemi Badenoch to Exit in 2026 now 13/8 from as short as 4/6 late October, we think she may continue to drift out. Her price now on the exchanges is 3.05 from as short as 1.74 in November.
Ed Milliband (Next Chancellor) now into 12/1 from 33/1.
One to watch
The Democrats’ 2025 momentum has clearly carried into 2026. The first special elections of the year saw a swing towards the Dems in every seat that was up in the house. The most significant of these was house district 98 in South Carolina which saw the Dems miss out on picking up the seat by just 21 votes, following a 14-point swing in their favour.
With the GOP house majority having already been at its most razor-thin in history during Trump’s honeymoon period, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Dems will pick up the House in this year’s Midterms.
The Dems are also beginning to feel rather bullish about the senate too. The price for them to control both bodies of Congress has continued to shorten and WilliamHill are now as low as 7/4. It now seems that Mary Peltola will be the Democrat candidate for this year’s Alaskan Senate election. The first Alaskan native member of congress with a voting record closer to the GOP’s, she could be a very strong candidate. Polymarket now has her as the favourite to flip a traditionally red part of the country. Note that this is also a seat that the Dems have previously won.
With the Republicans defending their only Harris-voting senate seat in Maine and current polling showing North Carolina flipping blue, we could end up with a 50-50 senate. Either way, Trump faces a real battle on his hands this November.
You can find the Republicans to win exactly 50 seats at 9/2 with Coral/Ladbrokes.