Weekly Review & Price Tips (13th Oct)
Labour are now at a historical high of 3.4 to win most seats at the Next General Election, in last weeks review we touched on Reform’s price of 10/11 and how we expected that to shorten. They are now generally 4/5, the Conservatives have seen some support since conference and are now back at 7.0 @betfairexchnage.
Caerphilly By-election - Plaid have drifted out now to 2/1 best price to win with @ladbrokes, Reform now into 1/3, looks very short to me. Hopefully we will get more markets on this seat out before poling day.
Nothing more to add really regarding price movements, Mahmood continues to shorten a touch for Next PM and the 10/11 is still good for 2026 Exit Date for Badenoch with @betfred.
Price Tips
Last weeks stand-outs went down well, both major discrepancies have shortened along with @brad_dylon 25/1 tip.
1) Democratic Nominee (2028) - Gavin Newsom now mainly (7/4) — 36% chance @polymarket / under 2/1 @betfairexchange (2/1 @betfred)
2) Nigel Farage Reform UK Leadership Exit Date - Highlighted this before, the price is all wrong here. You know he is 1/14 to still be Reform UK leader at the Next General Election but yet he is 10/11 to Exit 2029 or later with @betfred. Now @betfairexchange have this market too and there is still bits left at EVS+, honestly I would have this at-least 1/4 and I still wouldn’t like to lay it. The only possibility of Farage leaving before 2029 is health, thats it. He cant be removed and he is 3/1 Fav to be the Next Prime Minister, lets say a general election is called early and he loses, Reform are very likely to be the official opposition anyway. He isn’t going to resign.
Brads Tip
Contest is appearing for 2nd place in the Dutch Election at the end of the month between GL/PvdA and CDA. I think the prices are too far apart.
BACK 11/8 GL/PvdA for (2nd place Most Seats) with @ladbrokes — I expect this to shorten, they are surging slightly at the moment and I think it will continue, many firms now have them second fav including @polymarket.
BACK 11/8 PVV (34 or more seats) with @ladbrokes — I would have this more 6/5 myself, they are now touching 80% on @polymarket and I think we are in for a bit of a surprise on how well they perform. We touched on previously how well they have been polling for over 12 months and there price for most seats has collapsed over the last few weeks.