Next Prime Minister?

Over the last 6 months or so we have highlighted this market constantly, I have always said this is a great opportunity with both Farage and Burnham at the top of the market. This is because Starmer is very unlikely to still be Prime Minister at the Next General Election, meaning the next Prime Minister will be the next Labour leader. This automatically gets rid of Farage and all Tory possibilities who are priced into the market. Farage taking a good chunk of the % and also the cherry on top is Burnham, who is not an MP and the chances are getting slimmer for him getting back in Parliament, he’s taking up a lot too. Some firms have them both in at around 45%, but they have no where to hide as they cant be laying both at bigger prices. The possibility of both drifting like crazy is strong, especially if there are serious rumors of Starmer resigning or being ousted. I also think many regular punters are plowing in thinking this is the Next PM after the next election.

The Next Labour leader market is a no go market and I tell you why, you are getting significant shorter prices on all possibilities with Farage and the Tories not in. A majority of the big names at the top of the market will lose their seat if Starmer is still PM, therefore you will lose anyway due to a Labour leader being elected after a general election. The only reason to back in this market is if you find a name that is priced bigger compared against the Next Prime Minister market.

So basically from Day 1 I have been looking for potential Labour possibilities only, and with the odds on offer its great because you can certainly back a few. At one stage I found NINE who should be a lot shorter and if dutching at best prices on offer, you ended up being at 3/1 against the field. Do you want to back Farage, Burnham and Tories at 1/3?

We came up with a mixture of “soft/left" and “right” candidates, they were Milliband (66/1), Haigh (50/1), Rayner (33/1), Nandy (80/1), Powell (50/1), Streeting (11/1), Mahmood (25/1), Phillipson (60/1) and Khan (250/1). Now a few of those names you can probably take out now if you so wish, the likes of Phillipson for sure if she loses the deputy leader contest and Khan if he runs for London Mayor again.

What I’m really getting at is the superb value on offer in this market! And there’s always a way out especially if Starmer looks like he’s staying (I doubt it). Note that most of the prices above mentioned are no longer available, some have shortened considerably. But I did a recent check and all names against the field at best prices is currently 2/1.

Starmer is safe for now anyway after a decent conference and no alternative waiting in the wings, but after the budget and the elections in May things are going to get very difficult for him. He is also finding himself and those close to him surrounded in scandal, how long will he be allowed to carry on like this that’s the question. So my prediction is that the Next Prime Minister market will be back on the agenda and at the top of punters minds again very soon.

Take advantage of this market, don’t be thinking oh well I can take Farage out of the mix and play in the Next Labour leader market, you will be on a loser anyway, Streeting, Cooper, Milliband, Nandy, Rayner etc will not win their seats if Farage is Next PM. Lots of other names you can take a look at too, maybe some outsiders who are not in the current Labour cabinet, also utilise the @betfairexchange for better prices if available. Check regularly labourlist and the resources you have available on Labour members, as they will ultimately decide who becomes the Next Prime Minister, not the electorate.

I made a strong claim the other month, that both Farage and Burnham will NOT be the Next Prime Minister, and I stand by it.

Written by brad_dylon (PBC)