Kemi will resign in 2026
A few days ago I made the case that the current 2026 Exit Date price for Badenoch (10/11) is too big, many have floated the idea of her going in 2025 but this is too early. The main factor in all of this is the elections in May 2026, the party know they are in deep trouble and the results will be dire. But no-one and especially the future leader of the party wants to own the results in May, it would be a unnecessary kicking early doors. So they let Badenoch own the bad results and move afterwards, the process will be concluded in 2026. How long it takes I don’t know, but many in the party are hoping for a quick instalment of leader to prevent a long dragged out campaign, infighting and a blue on blue fight. Kemi has managed to delay her ousting so far with popular policies on immigration at the conference, something she had to do. No doubt about it she is now hostage to Jenrick and his supporters. A recent YouGov poll on Tory members shows that 50% of members think she shouldn’t lead the party into the Next General Election, and that is a membership that has completely changed over recent years and the same membership that voted her in as leader only last year.
Even more interesting is that 64% of Tory members want a pact with Reform and 73% would welcome a coalition with Reform (watch this space). This shows that they like what Reform stand for and clearly think that going down that route is needed, the man who is waiting in the wings to offer something similar is Jenrick. He is still (6/4) best price with @betvictor to become next leader, if you are a regular follower of us on X, you know how much we have been strongly highlighting Jenrick for next Conservative leader at prices as high as (6/1). We have also suggested backing the 2026 Exit double for both Starmer and Badenoch to go in 2026 at odds of (5/1+). Members poll also shows that Jenrick would beat Badenoch currently now if their was a leadership election by 7% (I thought it would be much higher, a touch concerning). He would also beat his main challenger Cleverly, who opened the original favourite.
Few markets to definately look at now, and I think many have a serious chance of collapsing. Maybe not much just yet, but as we get into next year things will get desperate.
2026 Badenoch Exit Date (10/11) best price with @betfred / @williamhil. I had this much shorter, at-least 4/5, @ladbrokes have now gone 8/11.
Jenrick Next Conservative Leader (6/4) best price with @betvictor.
2026 Exit Badenoch & Starmer now (5/2) best price with @ladbrokes. Hoping many of you got the (5/1) when we asked them for the double.
Both Badenoch & Starmer to NOT lead their parties into the Next General Election is now (7/10) best price with @starsportsbet, another that we strongly highlighted at (2/1+)
Another special that @ladbrokes have and is worth taking a look at — Both Streeting & Jenrick to lead their parties into the Next General Election (16/1). With most firms now that price combined is under (14/1).
Written by @brad_dylon