Weekly Review (6th Oct)

Significant support for Catherine Connolly over the last 48 hours in the Next Irish President market, this time last week she was as big as (7/4) now into (5/6). Very likely this will continue to shorten, most firms now at (8/13). Advised her at (4/1) a couple of weeks ago as she is the clear candidate on the left.

Caerphilly by-election - We have seen support for Reform from opening prices, now into (4/7) with @starsportsbet. Plaid is now available at (6/4) with @williamhill. We have just done a blog on the strong case for a Plaid win in this seat, make sure to check it out.

UK General Election (most seats) - Only one firm now at 10/11 Reform and that’s with @starsportsbet. Labour are now as high as 3.25 and Reform into 1.92 @betfairexchange. Most likely that Reform will end up shortening with firms into 5/6 max, many firms now at 15/8 Labour.

Starmer to be PM at Next General Election - Off the back of the Labour conference and dwindling out of Burnham’s leadership challenge, Starmer has shortened a touch into (6/4) to still be PM.

First Leader to be replaced - Starmer has shortened into (5/4) best price from (11/8) @ladbrokes to go before Badenoch, gap has closed slightly with many thinking it was slightly too far apart with an expected unpredictable 2026.

Next PM - Nothing stands out too much but a few names that have shortened is Mahmood and Streeting, also keep an eye on the (33/1) Rayner with @ladbrokes there is a lot of room for her to shorten. Burnham is drifting mainly on the @betfairexchange, I think many firms will be going the same way shortly.

Lucy Powell price continues to collapse for Next Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, now as short as (1/20).

Next Dutch Election - PVV continues to shorten, now into (4/9) best price with @williamhill. Think there is room for that price to get shorter, @ladbrokes have just opened two new markets - (2nd Most Seats) and (PVV Total Seats). The 11/8 GL-PvdA is interesting, looks to be very close for second with CDA, I would have expected them to be a little closer.

Next Senedd Election - Reform has shortened across the board from opening prices of (EVS), now (4/5) best price with @bet365 and @williamhill. Plaid best price (13/10) with @ladbrokes and @bet365.

Next US Election - One way traffic for the Democratic Nominee, Newsom is now into as short as (2/1) with @williamhill. Worth looking at the @ladbrokes double special on both Newsom and Vance winning the candidancy. That is (5/1) and the current double with firms is paying around (3/1).