The Value in the Next French presidential Election
Harold Wilson once stated that “a week is a long time in politics”. If that’s the case, then the past fortnight must have felt like an eternity in France. Emmanuel Macron nominated Sebastian Lecornu as his prime minister. His government fell after one day. And lo and behold, Macron nominated Lecornu as his PM once more.
Even more astonishingly, Macron’s seventh Prime Minister survived a no-confidence vote by the slim margin of 18 votes. With both the far-left and far-right unanimously backing the no-confidence vote, Lecornu would have to rely on the support of France’s traditional centre-left and centre-right parties, the Socialists and the Republicans.
The Socialists claimed a moral victory. To save themselves, Lecornu’s government agreed to postpone president Macron’s infamous pension reforms.
The Republicans, however, appeared to gain no concessions from their cuckholding. Lecornu’s appeasement of the left was simply accepted. With the possibility of fresh parliamentary elections looming, it seems that many MPs were worried about losing their seats.
With the Macron presidency now on a life-support machine, the race to replace him has now essentially begun. Many of his former supporters have now begun to bite the hand from which they were fed. Whilst two of his former Prime Ministers Gabriel Attal and Edouard Phillipe have both questioned his sanity and called for him to resign, his interior minister Bruno Retailleau publicly stated his frustration at the president’s unwillingness to “break from the past” – despite being re-nominated to his new government!
From a punting perspective, this election is unique from any we’ve seen before in France. In recent years, there have only been two or three candidates with a reasonable chance of making the second round – needing at least 20% of the vote to qualify. The sheer dominance of the National Rally in opinion polling, however, has left the door open for another candidate to qualify for the second round on a lower threshold of around 12-15%. This fact alone means we can now make a case for at least eight candidates to become the next president of France, leaving the possibility of a double-digit odds winner. I look at the potential back and lays in the market…
BACK
Jordan Bardella – currently 3/1 with Betfred/Boylesports
At the age of 31, Bardella is set to become France’s youngest ever president.
Make no doubt about it. This man should be an evens shot. Barring a miracle, Bardella has already qualified for the second round. His current odds of 3/1 have been artificially inflated by the fact that Marine Le Pen is still to face her appeal trial next year. However, if former right-wing president Nicholas Sarkozy has already been sentenced to five years in prison by France’s “leftie” judges then things do not bode well for her.
Conflicting visions for future electoral coalitions have engendered a divide between Bardella and Le Pen loyalists. In recent weeks, Bardella has extended an olive branch to Republican MPs to form a right-wing coalition, like that of the current Italian government. He himself has positioned himself on the economically liberal wing of the party when it comes to questions of trade and national debt – as opposed to the ‘Marineiste’ protectionist vision. The MEP also has a more Atlanticist view on foreign policy, having been more vocal on his support of Ukraine and Isreal, and cosying up to the Trumpist right. Bardella is also known to be receiving advice from former Sarkozy aids.
Marine, on the other hand, has rejected the idea of a right-wing coalition. Instead, she favours a national coalition which she herself admitted could include nationalist-minded people on the left. Her vision for the right is one which is more populist and social, closer to the Gaullist model, as opposed to the Thatcherite right.
With the National Rally reaching unprecedented heights of popularity, the system may finally have to accept its possible victory. Bardella’s vision for the party is one that could arguably be stomached by the country’s elite. Expect Marine Le Pen to be brushed to one side to make way for him.
Raphael Glucksmann – currently 12/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes
If Glucksmann had a campaign slogan, it would be “Make Macron Great Again”. His growing support base is essentially radicalised Macronists – only more bellicose (he’s obsessed with going to war with Russia) and more Euro federalist, having supported Mario Draghi’s radical plans for EU institutional reforms. Glucksmann is also vehemently Atlanticist and even stated that he felt more comfortable in New York than he did in La Creuse, a rural region of France.
Glucksmann now appears to be the Blob’s Macron replacement candidate and has even received some endorsements and campaign funds from some eye-catching oligarchs. He is seen as the man to liquidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon and reclaim the leadership of the left-wing coalition so that the moderate liberal wing dominates over the populists.
He has recent electoral success to his name, having received almost 14% of the vote in the European parliamentary elections – a significant increase from the measly 1.7% his party achieved at the 2022 presidential election and, more importantly, 4 points clear of Mélenchon’s far-left party.
His political positioning means he could attract voters from the far left, all the way to the moderate right in the second round. His price is too big, in my eyes.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon – currently 20/1 with Boylesports
The price has already dropped from 25/1 into14/1 with most firms. So, this is last orders for anything above 20s. Admittedly, Mélenchon is probably the one candidate that would struggle to galvanize the “anti-fascist” vote required to win the second round against Jordan Bardella. However, the 2024 legislative elections proved that this was not beyond impossible, having managed to persuade Gabriel Attal to withdraw centrist candidates to ensure left-wing candidates defeated far-right candidates.
Interestingly, Mélenchon followed a similar line to that of Jeremy Corbyn. He began as an old-school left-wing populist and Eurosceptic, outperformed the polls in 2017, before transmogrifying his movement into the woke student politics of today and what the French have coined ‘l’Islamogauchisme’ (Ismalic leftism). The leader of Unsubmissive France has now monopolised both the Muslim and banlieue vote – achieving over 50% of the vote in some of the poorest suburbs of the country’s big cities, whilst winning over 70% of the Muslim vote in France.
Mélenchon’s greatest asset is that he is still currently seen as the best-placed left-wing candidate to reach the second round. In the last presidential election, we saw how that paid dividends by the fact Mélenchon outperformed the polls by around 5%, coming within a whisker of reaching the second round. It was clear he benefited greatly from tactical voting as the Socialist Party was squeezed to just 1.7% of the vote.
As we speak, Mélenchon sits around 15% in the polls. However, the same polls find pro-Gaza candidate Dominique de Villepin and the Green party candidate each at around 5-6%. The potential for the Mélenchon vote to grow on election day is thus there.
AGAINST/LAY
Marine Le Pen – currently 9/2 with WilliamHill
For the reasons given above as to why Jordan Bardella will be the National Rally’s candidate, Marine Le Pen will not be able to run in this presidential election. The current leader of France’s far-right party will most likely lose her appeal next year.
From a Thatcherite, Atlanticist party to a more national populist party, the National Rally has seen a significant transformation under Marine Le Pen, since her father’s days. As a result, it currently monopolises the working-class vote in France. Under her leadership, the National Rally is now seen as a genuine threat to the established order. There is thus a lot of interest in seeing her disappear from the race…
Edouard Phillipe – currently 3/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes/WilliamHIll
The man who has been the bookies’ favourite, or joint favourite, since markets opened. The mayor of Le Havre has been essentially campaigning for this election since 2022. Indeed, Emmanuel Macron’s first prime minister has been lurking in the shadows for some time now, keeping his cards close to his chest.
Phillipe has been forced to play his cards earlier than he would have wanted, however. Like most aspiring presidential candidates, Phillipe has tried to distance himself from the waning popularity of the current administration. He resigned as prime minister, he created his own breakaway party Horizon (although it has voted with Macron’s government on almost every occasion), and he has recently been publicly critical of the president. But as Michael Heseltine once stated: “he who wields the sword never wears the crown”.
Phillipe has been burned by Emmanuel Macron’s scorched earth policy. By nominating Horizon’s deputy leader Sebastian Lecornu, Macron had dragged Phillipe into the game he is trying to stay out of. Whilst calling for Macron’s resignation, Phillipe has simultaneously been forced to save a government, headed by his right-hand man, and one that has caved to Socialist demands over pensions. It stinks of weakness. In recent weeks, the former Prime Minister has seen a 5-point drop in the polls.
The former Prime Minister has bigger fish to fry in the short term, however. UDR leader Eric Ciotti is hell-bent on political revenge. After disagreements about the direction of the Republican party, Ciotti broke away to form the UDR who are now the junior partner in a right-wing coalition with the National Rally. He is now determined to smash anyone who “betrayed the right” to support “la Macronie”. Eduoard Phillipe is no exception.
Ciotti has recently announced that his party will be fielding a very popular local candidate in le Havre’s mayoral election next year. A recent poll found that the split on the centre-right would be enough for the Communist candidate to defeat Edouard Phillipe. Already boasting a three-point lead for the French Communist Party, the poll also has Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s LFI sitting on 12%. A left-wing electoral path could thus be the final nail in Phillipe’s coffin. Losing his own seat, one year out before the big election, would surely kill any presidential ambitions.
Bruno Retailleau – currently 7/1 with WilliamHill/Betfred
Another man who flew too close to the sun. The president of the Republican party has used his position as interior minister (the French equivalent of the home secretary), and the media attention that comes with it, to audition for the role of president.
As someone who has taken a vocal hardline on issues such as immigration and crime, many were touting Retailleau as the next Sarkozy – someone who could win back working-class voters from the National Rally. During his apogee, some polls had Retailleau around the 14-15% mark.
But like Phillipe, Retailleau has been forced to stay in a government that he planned to escape long ago. Because, as many have begun to understand, if Macron is to fall, the whole system will fall with him.
Retailleau’s popularity has already begun to wane in the polls, and many are beginning to question why anyone would want a National Rally lite candidate when they can have the real thing.
We expect all three BACK candidates to shorten, Bardella has a strong chance of shortning significantly with the current price of Le Pen playing a factor in his price. It's an opportunity to get a few on side early doors and build a position. You will notice just how weak the AGAINST candidates are currently on the @betfairexchange, firms have not really budged from opening.
In the 8th October Weekly Review we highlighted Mélenchon at 25/1; his price is still too big.
Written by Julien Yvon & Brad Dylon.