Can Plaid win Caerphilly?
This will be the first by-election for the Senedd since 6th Feb 2018, Labour have won three by-elections out of the four that’s been called since the founding of the Welsh Parliament back in 1999. Plaid opened short enough early doors and I had a strong feeling that they would drift due to many supporting Reform. They have just done that, now (6/4) best price with WilliamHill.
I am going to outline my case for a Plaid win, I believe the increased support for both Plaid and Reform is real and the polling is not wrong, Plaid want to prove this at the ballot box and there is no better way than beating both Reform and Labour in a by-election. A seat that has always been Labour.
Latest YouGov poll for the Senedd has Plaid at 30% with a one-point lead over Reform, Labour as low as 14%. Now lets get to Caerphilly — Plaid finished second in this seat in 2021 (28.4%), 2016 (29.5%), 2011 (29.7%) and 2007 (25.8%). On all occasions in this constituency they considerably outperformed their national/regional vote %.
Labour have won this seat on all previous occasions with their vote % ranging from 35-48, politically Plaid are more aligned with Labour and that considerable labour vote in caerphilly will be splintering off in all directions, yes a lot to Reform but also to Plaid. The best the “right” achieved in this seat was around 31% in 2016 taking in total (22% UKIP and 9% Conservatives).
The question is what is the max % Reform can achieve here? And you are going in slightly blind without any previous results, taking short-odds in a safe left of centre seat. Labour and Plaid total vote % in 2016 was 74.4% and its been like that in previous results here consistently. Reform still have to prove themselves in Wales too, yes they have had some fantastic council results but not had to face anything like they have here with a strong Plaid vote. You also have to think of the ground game and the local knowledge Plaid will have during the campaign and on polling day.
Something that also took my eye was the standard of the Plaid candidate (Lindsay Whittle), a local born in Caerphilly, an experienced ex-Assembly Member who has been elected 7 times on to the Caerphilly council, that is impressive.
There is also a serious headache for Reform that has risen over the last week and that’s Nathan Gill. In late September, Gill former Reform UK Wales leader who stopped being active in the party in 2021, pled guilty to counts of bribery from a pro-Russian politician in 2018 and 2019. During the by-election campaign, Welsh Labour and the First Minister called on Reform's candidate, Llyr Powell, to explain what he knew about the affair as he used to work as an adviser to Gill, though Reform argued that this was before Gill had committed any criminal acts. Apparently this is going down well for Plaid on the doorstep, and may just make the difference in the end.
I’m more than happy to see Reform win here at (4/7) but not with my money, there are better spots elsewhere. Whatever happens I think it will be very close and the result is sure to have an affect on the Next Senedd Election (most seats) market. I still believe Reform will win most seats in 2026 but this seat stands out to me, its a real test.
Written by Brad (PBC) @brad_dylon