The Future Of Left-Wing Electoral Alliances

We often hear that the number of seats Reform will get in the next General Election will be enough to form a government with, or without, Conservative support. However, there are a number of obstacles Reform has to overcome to achieve this and the biggest of those is the informal electoral pacts that the Left is already pursuing in local by-elections. Other large obstacles include the fact that the Reform vote is quite evenly spread and the fact that it also currently lacks an efficient organisation which is often vital on Election Days in getting your vote out. The Conservatives lack members both in total and enthusiasm to take advantage of this, but the Left wing parties have the organization and enthusiastic members to press home any opportunities in their target seats. Left-wing activists seem to understand that the General Election result of 2024 where over 60% of the vote was against the right is unlikely to occur in a future election. In current opinion polls the prediction is the low 50’s%

Today’s blog will concentrate on how the left-wing alliances work to maximise seats won. The media like to concentrate on asking questions about Reform and the Conservatives having an electoral pact but the more relevant story and the one that is not often talked about, is the informal alliances that are already taking place on the Left. Local council by-election results are already showing this in action. It is easier to do at that level due to the lack of voters but it is, nonetheless, a template that will be followed in larger elections. The Welsh and Scottish Parliamentary Elections and the Local Council Elections in May will be a larger litmus test case of their effectiveness but there is definitely the makings of a coherent “anybody but Farage” policy already being operated by the Left.

Let’s now examine what has already been going on for years and that is the informal electoral pact between Labour and the Liberal Democrats especially in South West England. This has come about due to two main reasons : Firstly, the Liberal Democrats have become more and more focused on using their meagre resources to convert votes into seats. If you compare the 2010 General Election result with the 2024 result one can see the fruits of this policy – 2010 23% of the vote for 57 seats while in 2024 12.2% achieved 72 seats mainly in the South and South-West of England. There are limits to this policy but it does make them significant potential coalition partners. Their main targets are the Conservatives and the possible split of the right-wing vote will aid their cause in their target seats.

The second reason is that the Labour Party, which was always seen in the South-West as not understanding rural affairs, has become even more a party of the cities and large towns as its support base has become increasingly well-off. They have almost given up on the South-West and seemingly are not that bothered as they feel the Liberal Democrats are far more likely to back them than the Conservatives in forming a coalition, especially, after their experience between 2010 and 2015. As if to confirm this is the case, one of the first things Labour did when taking power was to abandon the proposed widening of the A303 at Stonehenge and later followed that with the Farm Inheritance Tax. Both of which are big issues in the South-West.

So, we have a left wing party (Liberal Democrats) dominating the small towns and countryside of Southern England and we currently have Labour dominating the rest of Great Britain. But when, as seems likely, Labour collapses at the next election, which Left wing parties/candidates can take their place?

Let’s start with the Green Party. It has four seats currently, its traditional heartland of Brighton Pavilion, plus the rural seats of North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley (Norfolk/Suffolk border) and the university city seat of Bristol Central all of which it gained in 2024. These are the type of seats they will concentrate on as that is where they also have the most influence in local politics.

Labour picked up rural seats last year and these MP’s are not expecting to retain their seats so resources will not be ploughed into their next campaign. They only won their seats because they were not Conservatives and next time there could well be a significant anti-Labour and Conservative feeling in these seats. The Greens will be targeting these seats, especially those next to University Seats.

Labour MP’s in university seats are also going to be prime targets for a very good reason. When Jeremy Corbyn was kicked out of the leadership of Labour, the members he brought with him (Momentum) when he stood for the leadership, had a decision to make. It was not a universal one as some stayed in the party to fight for what they believed in, but a very significant number waited for the next opportunity - and that came this year when Zack Polanski stood to become the Green leader. It was far from surprising that Green Party membership rose by 50% in six months during and after his victory. His politics are far-left and in alignment with Momentum on most things. This is very significant, because these new members are enthusiastic and organized and mainly concentrated in university seats. The traditional “fluffy” membership of the Green Party has been sidelined and although I expect, in the long term, a crack to appear in this coalition I think it will last at least one election, which should help The Greens to win some more rural seats. The Liberal Democrats will largely stand by in these seats as they will not wish to split the left wing vote and, because on a lot of green issues they tend to agree with the Green Party.

So, now to the cities of the Midlands, the North and also London. Some results here will be determined by the incoming politics of Great Britain – sectarianism. Four Muslim MP’s were elected on the Gaza issue in 2024 but that is only the start of this type of politics. Muslim Independent MP’s were elected in Leicester, Dewsbury, Birmingham and Blackburn but some well-known Labour MP’s were perilously close to losing their seats including Wes Streeting in Ilford North. As Labour is their main opponent in areas with a high percentage of Muslim voters, then this type of MP will only continue to grow at the next election. On many issues they will campaign as left wingers but when it comes to cultural issues the conservatism of this group will make government coalitions hard to sustain.

At this point we have to mention Your Party, as a number of the Muslim MP’s are looking to be part of it. This party has already suffered plenty of birthing pains and I can only see that continuing as the Hard Left loves a battle amongst itself for who can proclaim themselves the most “pure of ideological thought” and therefore the leader/ship. Whatever its final makeup, it will only stand in seats in inner cities where Labour are the main opposition and the Greens and Liberals Democrats struggle to even find a candidate. There is also one other party to mention as here and, that is, George Galloway’s Workers Party. It has stood in mainly Muslim areas but in Blackburn it stood against an Independent Muslim who won the seat. The conflict between Muslims and the Hard-Left who think they know what is best for them is one of the long-term fault lines in the potential of a Left Wing Alliance.

We move on to Wales. Senedd elections next year will help with forming opinions on a General Election, but the recent Senedd by-election was a disaster for the Labour Party and this is likely to be repeated next May. The rise of Reform in Wales (and Scotland) will continue to suffer from them being seen as an English party and let’s be honest Farage is very English! In Wales this means there is a great opportunity for Plaid Cymru to achieve its best ever result in a General Election.

Finally to Scotland. Like Wales we will have more of an idea of the current state of Scottish Politics after next year’s Scottish Parliamentary elections. Most of the heartland of Scotland is littered with straight fights between Labour and the SNP whose results are normally very similar. Very few seats can be affected by Left wing tactical voting as the Conservatives only have 5. However, the voting next May could indicate seats where Reform is a threat and the need to defend left-wing seats may become apparent.

So let’s do the maths to see if a left-wing multi-party coalition government would be possible.

Liberal Democrats 80-90 seats is more than possible

SNP – 35-40 seats is plausible

Plaid Cymru – 15 seats is more than possible

Greens – 20 to 25 seats not unlikely

Your Party / Muslim Independents/ Workers Party 10+

At the upper end of these guesstimates we have a total of 180, so the Labour Party would only need around 130 to deny a right-wing coalition. That’s 310 seats plus 18 Northern Ireland Seats and The Speaker.

I know that this Chaos scenario is a creation of my musings but it is not an implausible situation. We have an electoral system in this country designed for 2-3 parties to try and ensure stable government, when there are in England 6 parties/pressure groups (Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Reform, The Greens and Muslim Independents) and in Scotland and Wales we have the Nationalist parties to add to the mix. So, parties have to co-operate with each other on an informal basis to maximise their seats and, in a world of swift communications, this has become far easier to do.

Of course there will be seats where left-wing parties are so closely matched that they split the vote. However, they may well be aided by the fact that the right will also suffer from this phenomena and, this is something that has only recently become a problem for right-wing voters.

From a bettor’s point of view what are our opportunities? Well, each constituency is going to have to be studied closely to ascertain the most likely result in a General Election, but that work is likely to be well rewarded. Local news websites can give you a good feel as to who is actually wanting their name in front of the electorate and who is a “ghost” candidate. Feeding into this opportunity is that Betting companies have historically feared general countrywide trends which is why they don’t take constituency multiple bets. This, combined with the trend over recent years of reducing the numbers of odds compilers, means they are relying more and more on algorithms in all betting areas and algorithms are of little use in constituency political betting markets with their increasingly very individual circumstances.

The map of the 2024 Electoral Results showed the world that the UK had changed, but the underlying results were far different than a map of the winners suggested as numerous Labour MP’s had very thin majorities. 2029, or whenever the General Election will be, is likely to have a far more chaotic map to represent the winners than we have ever seen before. When the Election comes we need to take advantage of that situation.

Written by Peter (@prwillingale)