The Net Zero Economic Crisis For Working People
In my blog, after the Budget, I made the point that the Labour Party’s dive to the bottom continues to forgo the workers it was formed to represent because their views do not tally with the Intelligentsia Socialists who think they know best. Politically they will replace their votes by creating and supporting a large sub-section of society who only take from the coffers of society and who cannot or do not want to contribute. The problem with this electoral tactic is that, with the Green Party now under the leadership of Polanski, this is an extremely competitive market!
Four months on from The Budget, with the Iran crisis ongoing, we are seeing another example of how the ideological politics of the Left are going to make the lives of the workers of this country so much harder than they need to be.
Net Zero ignores the basic idea that our country needs reliable energy provision and as our current supply of renewable energy sources are unable to provide this, we are in grave danger of blackouts. As somebody who was a small child during the three-day working week in the early 70’s, reading by candlelight is only fun for so long! If that happens during the winter and people are cold this policy could ironically lead to a rise in the demand for coal.
This country already has the highest energy prices in the western world and that is long term economic suicide. We are entering the world of an economic doom loop mostly of our own making. Net Zero is a great headline but it has a devastating impact for a country when it is the only one taking a headlong path towards it. Also, as I will explain, the high energy prices will create an environment in which carbon emissions will rise and not fall so the whole policy is nothing but an empty headline.
Manufacturing industries which have high production costs are always likely to go bankrupt. Our industries are being hampered by high energy prices and increased business taxes and will become increasingly uncompetitive in a competitive world market. This will result in increases in unemployment, increased welfare expenditure, and a decrease in revenue for the Treasury at a time when this country’s finances are stretched to near breaking point. Now the Labour Party and the Greens kneejerk response will be to raise taxes, but this will further shrink the tax base as there will be continued emigration of people who are currently paying tax. As a country we urgently need to increase the ability of more people to pay tax to finance the country and anything that does the opposite will only lead to a lower standard of living for the average worker.
When industries like Chemicals and Salt, that make products which we cannot do without go bankrupt, we will have to import them. By importing these vital products, we will have increased prices and an increased carbon footprint. We will also suffer from a less than reliable supply chain due to the uncertainness of a world dominated by Trump’s foreign policies.
The extravagant headlines in papers like The Observer and The Guardian over our current renewable energy sources are laughable because they hint that we can make ourselves nearly self-sufficient from these types of energy sources. At this point let me make myself clear, that I am all in favour of wind farms and solar panels but not at the cost that Miliband has signed us up to.
The great problem with wind turbines it that they only produce energy when the wind blows, and we do not have enough storage facilities for when they produce more than the current demand. As an amateur meteorologist I know only too well that most weather forecasts underestimate the staying power of so-called blocking High Pressure systems in which winds are light and of no use for wind turbines. The worst example of these from an energy production and demand point of view is the Winter Blocking High Pressure which so nearly happened this winter when one was stationed over the near continent. This led to the above average rainfall we received during this winter as the High would not allow the Low Pressure systems to sweep into Europe. The very cold temperatures these systems produce would, under Miliband’s plans, break the energy market of the UK and result in energy blackouts.
Solar energy is again another renewable energy source whose capacity is trumpeted beyond its capabilities because as we know the sun does not always shine. This winter has been so dull in my part of the world a sighting of the sun was considered a legitimate topic to discuss in the local shops!Now in my nightmare scenario of a Winter High Pressure System the amount of energy produced by solar energy is not going to keep the lights on. We would be reliant on gas imports and at a time of the year when the price is high. We also have very little in terms of storage facilities for any of our means of energy generation.
One thing which would have helped to a small degree, is if the governments of recent years had enacted a scheme to make sure every new house had solar panels where it was possible to do so. It could also have helped by having solar panels on all government and council owned buildings. The large housebuilding projects that this government hopes will happen before the next election would have been a great starting point, but we all know less houses are now being built. One major problem with my idea is that schemes like these would require decent administration the like of which the Civil Service has been unable or unwilling to provide in similar circumstances in recent years.
An expansion of nuclear energy is definitely worth pursuingas, once built, they are dependable in the amount of energy they can produce. However, the time it takes in this country to build any major project makes this option unlikely to produce enough electricity by 2050 to have any major impact above current levels. I do not expect this government, just like those of the last 30 years, to have the stomach to push hard enough to change this for purely political reasons. All the political negatives of major infrastructure projects come in the planning and building stages and all the fruits come later on when current politicians will mostly be long gone from the main political stage. Also, how anybody can describe Nuclear Energy as “green energy” has always been an argument I have failed to understand, because once the reactors have finished their active life you still have to spend years running the sites to avoid contamination. Therefore, its long-term costs are far more than is ever stated by its supporters.
One further worry is that our gas power stations are getting close to the end of their forecasted lives, so this will add to the problems we are facing.
So, as we have failed to invest in one reliable renewable energy source in tidal power generation, for, ironically,mainly environmental reasons, we will have to rely to a significant extent, whether we like it or not, on gas for our energy generation. However, due to Net Zero we refuse to increase supply to the markets with our own gas. This is pure madness because as we reduce our own supply in the next 15 years our demand for it will fall by far less. This means that our reliance on imported liquid gas outside of Norway’s reserves is likely to increase from around 14% now to 30% in 2035. This will increase the carbon footprint of our energy requirements as we currently get most of these supplies from Qatar. Qatar has large reserves, but this option will be a nightmare scenario for as long as Iran wishes it to be. Qatar has already said that normal supplies could take years to get back to 2025 levels.
Our oil reserves should also be used due to a world shortage of oil. If we continue to do nothing to stop global oil prices rising, then the only people who will be happy will be the Treasury due to increased tax receipts, but then the Treasury has never been good with thinking past next month. If diesel and heating oil continue to rise, then there will be lots of businesses who rely on these products for whom this will be the last straw, and the Treasury will have to pay out far more than it receives from the extra fuel duty.
All of the economic repercussions of Net Zero I have discussed are going to have huge effects on the people who currently work and pay tax in this country. Unemployment numbers in manual jobs will increase and there will be bouts of large increases in food and energy inflation resulting in more people needing welfare. Lower paid workers who spend a larger percentage of their income on these will be worse affected. Labour’s recent sleight of hand with switching some of our energy bills to general taxation has not changed the situation just how we pay for it.
Hope, that four letter word Polanski keeps spouting on about, will be lost for anybody who has aspirations for their family in the echelons of the working and low-middle classes of this country. Our country’s economy will become the equivalent of our current Navy – not up to the standards expected of a first world country and, as usual, the ones who will be least effected will be the ultra-rich as they have the option of escaping.
In the 1960’s successive governments pursued with great vigour the recommendations of the Beeching Report. They continued to do so even when evidence that was used to make its recommendations was proved to have been concocted to get the result that Ernest Marples the Minister for Transport who commissioned the report wanted. Since the 1980’s we have spent 40 years trying to repair the damage done. With time the railways were naturally being closed where there was no demand, but when a policy is pursued with zeal logic flies out of the window. We do need to pursue renewable energy projects with real vigour but to close off other energy sourcesbefore these have been fully developed is a catastrophic mistake. The main sufferers as usual, when the Intelligentsia of this country gets a bee in its bonnet, are the normal working people of this country trying to make a better future for themselves and their families.
Using our oil and gas reserves in the current situation would not hamper the long-term goals of Net Zero but actually help us to get there. It would enable us to have some money to invest in new energy technologies in the future. We are suffering from self-imposed schedules that seem impervious to changing circumstances. Unfortunately adhering to these schedules is going to make the health of the planet worse as imports will increase carbon emissions. Idealism is always a good thing, as it is how societies progress, but only if it is tempered with reality. Rigid adherence to ideology never achieves its original goals you just need to look at the results of the major revolutions to see what happens. The phasing out of our own oil and gas production should only happen when we have sufficient and secure renewable energy supplies. Evolution is often seen my many as too slow, but it sees steady but secure gains for society as the majority can buy into gradual change.
My advice to the Labour Government is, instead of trying to do the right thing ideologically do the right thing by the working people of this country. They only need to look at a recent survey of what people think about the NHS to see the fact that people appreciate a minister who is trying to make things better. Wes Streeting is hated by the Left but not by the public. He is seen by the public as trying to do the right things to make the NHS better and although there is a long way to go there seems to be some hope. However, university style ideological politics has a vice like grip on the Labour Party with Ed Miliband being an archetypal case in point. We also all know that Labour backbenchers are steeped in such politics and with Starmer powerless to stop them this Net Zero madness will continue as long as the party refuses to face reality. However, after nearly two years of government, their grasp on reality has shown no signs of developing. I hope I am wrong as all I want is for this country to do well regardless of who is in power.