The Case Against a Green Victory in 2029
Many eyebrows have been raised this week over the publishing of a lord Ashcroft poll which gave the Greens 21% in a narrow three-way tie with lReform and the Tories. This marks a historic moment in British politics as the first Westminster voting intention poll to place the Greens on top. With their recent success in Gorton and Denton, and their continued rise in the polls, many have begun to ask the question… what if?
Despite all the hype, we believe a dose of reality is needed before taking any price on the Greens to win the next general election. Julien and Brad put forward the case against the Greens winning the most seats in 2029.
We do see opportunities to trade in the “most seats” market. In previous blogs, we’ve highlighted the potential value of backing them at significantly higher prices, anticipating that those odds would shorten. Currently, with them just under 9.0, we expect their price to tighten further following the local election results.
Reform leader Nigel Farage has recently publicly changed his mind on electoral reform. Having once been an ardent supporter of converting to PR, the former UKIP leader has now stated that he’ll be sticking to FPTP for now. And it’s no surprise. Due to the high concentration of left-wing voters in urban areas, the current boundaries under FPTP have a ‘small c conservative’ bias similar to that of the electoral college for the Republican party. Indeed, 61% of constituencies voted for Brexit, which contrasts to the 52% of the popular vote. In all likelihood then, the Greens would have to win the popular vote by a significant margin before that translated into having the most seats in parliament.
The PR campaign and electoral strategy would need to be exceptional—broad, consistent, and highly visible—to convince voters that the Greens are the best choice in every constituency over Labour. In many areas, loyalty to the Labour Party runs deep, often passed down through generations, making it a significant challenge to shift long-standing voting habits.
Is Polanski willing to move toward the centre on key issues to appeal to a broader electorate? Doing so could conflict with his left-wing populist message. Is the country aligned with his positions on many issues? Voter attention is likely to sharpen closer to polling day
I also think that many traditional Labour voters across England could shift toward Reform if it came down to a direct contest with the Greens. Have we underestimated how strongly some long-standing Labour supporters dislike the Greens and their policies? Remember, many of them voted Conservative for Boris in 2019 to oppose Corbyn, so moving toward Reform might actually be less of a leap for them.
Has it all come too soon? How can they manage the logistics of a national election with limited funding and resources? Running a campaign at that scale requires careful coordination of staff, volunteers, advertising, local outreach, and compliance with election rules—challenges that are magnified when finances are tight.
Is it essentially a one-man operation? Who are the key figures supporting Polanski—he can’t be everywhere at once. And where are the Green Party’s detailed policies? Their proposals on wealth taxes and other economic measures currently lack concrete substance.
Reform seems confident that they have the upper hand against the Greens, and in my view, they would likely win that culture war. We’re already seeing signals being sent about Polanski’s stance on issues like mass immigration, positioning Reform to challenge him on these fronts.
Greens feel more of a protest vote compared to Reform. A potential new soft-left Labour leader can take back some support from the Greens. With the Labour Party now moving in that direction already, they are tapping into some concerns of those lost Green moderate voters.
The Greens have focused heavily on England, and their lack of a vote-winning strategy in Wales and Scotland will significantly limit their chances of winning Westminster seats. They have not really tapped into the major issues shaping politics in either nation, which makes it harder for them to build the concentrated local support needed to win constituencies under first-past-the-post.
The Green Party is likely to struggle to win a large number of Westminster seats mainly because its support is geographically uneven and because Scotland and Wales are dominated by different party systems. In Scotland, most of the Green vote is split between the Scottish Greens and larger forces like the SNP and Labour, meaning it rarely concentrates enough in individual constituencies to win Westminster seats. In Wales, politics is similarly dominated by Labour, Plaid Cymru, and increasingly Reform UK in some areas, leaving limited space for the Greens to build seat-winning concentrations.
More Success = More scrutiny
It feels absurd to be comparing the Greens to the BNP. But I’m going to do it anyway. At the height of Nick Griffin’ssuccess around the late noughties, the BBC, under their own impartiality rules, were forced to give the BNP more airtimeafter they took control of over 50 local council seats, a seat on the London assembly, and had two MEPs elected.
It’s fair to say that their support subsequently declined rather sharply. Party policy received proper media scrutiny whilst Nick Griffin’s appearances on Question Time turned him in into a bit of a laughing stock.
Newly-elected Green MPs have already been the victims of endless parliamentary grillings – often defenceless targets for under-pressure Labour MPs. Meanwhile, as Polanski’s profile continues to grow, his previous ‘mishaps’ and party drug policy continue to gain more media attention.
With the party potentially winning power in some councils in May, there will finally be policy put in place to scrutinise. The recent poll dip has suggested Reform have struggled with the transition from a party of protest to a party in power. Will the same be the case for the Greens?
Tactical Voting
In a FPTP system we often find that we are voting againstsomeone, rather than for someone.
A More in Common poll was conducted not long after the Gorton and Denton by-election to find out which parties Brits were tactically voting against. It will come at no surprise that Reform came out on top with 38% of the public saying they would vote for another party to prevent Farage’s men getting in.
Interestingly, the tactical anti-Green vote saw a rise of 4 points in the polls, following the by-election. Whilst this still represents only 7% of the British public, the increase is significant. We are still in the early days of the Polanski leadership and, as we mentioned above, the more the public get to know him, the more he will divide public opinion – whether you like him or not. Come the aftermath of the May election campaigns, that 7% will have risen further, I suspect.
The Greens are no longer simply the party of recycling. Some parts of the country will be worried by Polanski’s brand of politics, emphasised by the accusations of “sectarian”campaigning in Gorton and Denton. This may lead to some more moderate voters lending their votes to the party best-placed to defeat the Greens.
How far would the Labour Party have to fall? Quite significantly—we are talking about something in the region of 10–15% nationally. Even then, so many seats are still contested between Labour and the wider left that it could still limit the Green Party’s ability to actually win seats. It could end up looking similar to what happened with Reform UK: they may gain a lot of votes nationally but still end up finishing second in many constituencies rather than converting that support into seats.
A Precarious Coalition
With all focus on the Greens taking over Labour as the strongest party on the left, many have forgotten that the Greens actually took double the amount of seats off the Tories than they did Labour.
The Greens are essentially a coalition of three electorates: the lefty uni student ex corbynistas, the muslim working class, but also the rural NIMBY middle class boomers from former Tory heartlands. The latter voted in their Green MPs when they party was on the more moderate centre-left and talking about rejoining the EU. It still remains to be seen whether the electorate of Norfolk and Herefordshire will warm to Polanski’s style of politics.
The LGBT left – Muslim alliance is also interesting. There have been signs of cracks in the past. One remembers the Batley and Spen by-election when Labour’s lesbian candidate Kim Leadbeater was intimidated by Muslim men who were protesting LGBT education in their children’s schools.However, it continues to hold for now in the Green party. But for how long?
Candidate selection will also be difficult for them. The Independent Alliance and figures like Akhmed Yakoob in Birmingham have recently launched a scathing attack on the Greens regarding their socially liberal and “woke” policies, arguing they are incompatible with socially and morally conservative Muslim voters. This also ties into the wider debate around trans issues, where Zack Polanski has maintained a firm position from his party leadership campaign and shown little willingness to shift. The Greens may therefore face candidate selection pressures similar to those currently facing Reform UK, as past views and online activity of prospective candidates come under greater scrutiny. Not all candidates will be like Hannah Spencer.