Which Labour MP will defect to the Green Party?
Which Labour MP will defect to the Green Party?
Ladbrokes has opened this market, but I haven’t seen it anywhere else as yet. Initially I was interested, but I am not sure there’s much value to be found.
At time of writing these are the odds:
• No Serving Labour MP (As of 12/01/26) to join the Green Party during the current Parliament — 6/4
• Nadia Whittome — 6/1
• Richard Burgon — 7/1
• Chris Hinchliff — 10/1
• Kim Johnson — 10/1
• Abtisam Mohamed — 12/1
• Apsana Begum — 12/1
• Clive Lewis — 12/1
• Rebecca Long-Bailey — 14/1
• Charlotte Nichols — 16/1
• Kate Osborne — 16/1
• Rachel Maskell — 16/1
• Bell Ribeiro-Addy — 20/1
• Daniel Zeichner — 20/1
• Ian Byrne — 20/1
• Ian Lavery — 25/1
• John McDonnell — 25/1
• Jon Trickett — 25/1
• Wes Streeting — 33/1
Firstly, if you can get your “Daily Boost” with Ladbrokes, then up to £50 can be bet at slightly better than these odds. Don’t forget to use it.
It’s worth breaking them down into different groups although that can be difficult. Initially I looked for value with Clive Lewis and Nadia Whittome are who generally agreed to be aligned with the AWL, a micro Trotskyist group. The AWL have split their members between Labour, Your Party and the Greens of late, so maybe one of their MPs would defect to the Greens. Initially, I thought Nadia might be value at 10/1 and I did take a small punt, but one AWL comrade tells me she iscommitted to her CLP and at 6/1 I don’t see any value there. She was the obvious candidate, being aligned with the new Green influx of members – economically leftish and socially liberal. Same for Clive Lewis but not in the same age demographic and has spent more of his life battling inside the Labour Party; AWL member I know even suggested he might run for labour leader (he would lose).
Richard Burgon is connected to another small group of leftists, but their Pro-China stance probably means they aremore steadfastly committed to the party of organised workers in the UK.
Apsana Begum and Rebecca Long Bailey are from the Labour Left. They have long standing Trade Union connections and like Corbyn are probably going to have to be pushed from the party that they have struggled inside for so long. As Labour MPs they have quite a lot of clout on the left, representing an embattled but incredibly persistent tradition. Outside of Labour, they are no longer torch carriers of that tradition, but are just another MP. Kim Johnson is also on the left of the Party but again has deep ties to the Trade Union movement. Johnson, Begum, RLB, Lavery, Osborne etc etc, are all too connected to Trade Unions which still have a constitutional place in the party they founded, for now. There is no such place for the TUs in the Green’s power structures.
Rachel Maskell likes foetuses too much for greens to stomach taking her on.
Of the others mentioned in the Ladbrokes odds, Abtisam Mohamed and Chris Hinchcliff were elected in 2024. If they were going to leave the Party wouldn’t they have done so already, before their election as they weren’t already MPs. Defecting only after the Greens come to prominence reeks of desperation, but also those selected to be candidates during Starmer’s reign would probably be more loyal and accepting of the Party as it presently exists. First term MPs v rarely defect. If they were to try and defect, it would be as a newly elected Labour MP who stood against a Green candidate just 2 years ago. Would the local party accept that when it came to reselection time?
I asked for Abtisam Mohamed to be added to the list because of the projection that her seat would fall to the Greens and the perception that she’s on the left of labour, without being connected to the Trade Unions. It's unclear if the local greens would take her, especially as someone who voted to proscribe Palestine Action in the not distant past, although it could be argued there is possible value at 12/1 ( boosted to 13/1).
Other than her, I think there are too many moving parts. Too many new Labour MPs who might be craven enough to beg for a Green nomination at the next election. 6/4 on no defections has to be avoided for that reason.
Other Markets:
Mayor of London
Mayor of London is in the news. I have been meaning to write for a while that Dawn Butler with Ladbrokes is value at 20/1 (22/1 boosted). Of course Khan is saying he wants to stay. Incumbent’s rarely telegraph that they are going to stand down with so much of their premiership remaining. Butler has however been talking openly about a desire to one day be Mayor of London.
Khan and Laila Cunningham share prominence in the market, but I still can’t see past a fridge freezer with a red rosette being able to hold this for Labour. Single Transferable Vote is very likely to return for the next mayoral election and I feel like a Labour candidate can take enough steps to distance themselves from Starmer to win those second votes. You think Green defectors or genteel Lib Dems will risk Reform getting in by not giving their back up vote to someone like Butler? No way. Khan could recently be found on Paddy Power at 11/4 (for some reason PP politics are rarely scraped to Oddschecker leading to some nice odds being available). I had some of that as a little hedge, and if he lengthens any further, I may have some more.
*Subsequently, Khan has been rumored to be appointed to the House of Lords as a life peer and to take on a cabinet position. While this remains speculative, such a development could have significant implications for the market.
Next Labour Leader/PM
Unfortunately the 18/1 for Burnham that was around recently has gone. I need to get these posts out sooner. I had suggested this was a price worth taking due to the support Starmer has had for his stance on Iran. Eventually the Cossie Livz will spike again, but that mightn’t be for a while, giving Burnham a little more time to find a seat. We had all expected Starmer to be dead post-May Locals, but he might be allowed limp on, as a reward for boldly saying No-ish to Trump.
Nandy came out for Burnham recently which highlighted the potential splits in the “left” ahead of the next leadership election. Burnham would be seen as a more moderate voice, less tied to TUs, than Rayner. If the great mass of new, more right-wing labour MPs want to save their seats without letting in someone who’s too far left, maybe they will give up on Wes/Mahmood and accept Andy. Could they put any pressure on Starmer to fight on until Burnham gets a seat. It’s all still unclear.
One thing that isn’t unclear is that a candidate for Next Labour Leader should always be shorted than the same candidate in the Next PM market. Always check BOTH markets when placing bets. Burnham is currently 14/1 (boosted to 15/1) with Ladbrokes in both. If you are making the bet, then bet on him to be next Labour Leader. When it comes to Betfair Exchange you can occasionally even find better odds in the Lab Leader market.
Written by @amethystdecei