US Midterms 2026

One year into Trump’s second term and it’s fair to say that the 47th president of the United States has lost some momentum since his astronomical victory in 2024. To put it simply, the Trump election campaign was founded upon three promises: improving the economy, ending the war in Ukraine, and dealing with immigration.

The latter has arguably been frustrated by largely Democrat-controlled states that have pushed back on Trump’s deportation measures on a local government level. The former two, however, have generally been seen as a failure on the part of the Trump administration. Indeed, whilst the conflict in Ukraine has continued to rumble on for another year, a recent poll found that around 74% of Americans believed that their monthly household costs had increased by at least $100 since the Trump administration1. To make matters worse, the Trump administration declared that inflation “was over”, shortly before the Federal Reserve Bank announced a slight increase in inflation.

The Trump administration has also disappointed some of its own supporters on some issues. Whilst most voters on both sides of the aisle agree that Trump has poorly handled the Epstein affair, a lot of his own voters will have seen the government’s decision to bomb Iran as a betrayal of his anti-interventionist principles.

The recent polling figures look rather bleak for the current administration. A Gallup poll showed a steep drop in Trump’s approval rating to just 36%2 - the lowest ever since he polled at 34% in 2021, following the capitol riots. More worryingly for the Republicans, however, a fresh Martist poll3 found that the Democrats had a 14-point lead over the GOP in a party-generic midterm poll.

With the next set of Midterms looming on the horizon, I take a look who will hold the balance of power come the end of 2026.

The House

A lot can happen in a year in politics. However, if the midterms were held tomorrow, it would almost be a forgone conclusion that the Dems would take back the house. History has taught us time and time again that the Republican party underperforms Trump himself. This was the case once again in 2024 when, despite Trump winning the popular vote, the GOP were on the receiving end of a 4-seat swing away from them in the House. The Republicans currently hold the most razor-thin majority in the history of congress. If we are to believe the current polling, then a blue wave is on its way to the House.

1 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/16/inflation-economic-pessimism-poll

2 https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/29/trump-approval-rating-low-gallup/87524482007/

3 https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/a-look-to-the-2026-midterms-november-2025/

The 2025 gubernational and AG elections were an early warning sign for the GOP. Indeed, the New Jersey and Virgina gubernational elections, that had been predicted to be a close affair, were both won comfortably by the Democrats by a margin of around 14-15%. Meanwhile, Jay Jones was able to win the Attorney General election in Virginia, despite being caught up in a scandal involving leaked texts fantasising about putting bullets in his opponents’ head. Elsewhere, the Dems smashed the Republicans in some minor elections in swing states, such as the Public Service Commission in Georgia where the Dems flipped two seats by double-figure margins.

In general, the governing party tends to perform weakly in midterms. In 2018, for example, Trump lost control of the House due to a 41-seat swing towards the Democrats in the midterms. Despite his quasi-whitewash victories in both presidential elections, Ronald Reagan never held both the House and the Senate at any point in his 8-year tenure.

Recent redistricting also seems to have favoured the Democrats. Indeed, Governor Gavin Newson was essentially gloating publicly about the quasi gerrymandering in California’s new electoral map that would see the Dems gain at least five seats. The Dems have also made some roads in red states such as Utah whose new redistricting will give them their first congressional seat in the state since 2018. Meanwhile, a federal court has blocked the proposal of more pro-GOP redistricting in red states such as Texas.

The Senate

Unlike the House, where every seat is up for election every two years, Senators hold a six-year term. This means that only a third of Senate seats are biannually up for election. To the frustration of Democrats, and the relief of Republicans, the 2026 electoral map appears to greatly favour the GOP.

The Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate with Maine and North Carolina being the only 2024 swing-state seats that the GOP has to defend in 2026. Maine is historically a blue state, but her Senate seat has been held by Republican moderate Susan Collin since 1996. The charismatic senator has often refused to vote along party lines and has received criticism from Donald Trump himself on her voting record. It is not yet certain whether she will seek a sixth term in office but her retirement would certainly spell the end of GOP hopes in the blue state.

However, even if the Republicans were to lose both Maine and North Carolina (which Trump won comfortably in 2024), it is hard to see where else they could surrender their Senate majority.

Due to a hardening of partisan sentiment in the US, we have seen a reduction in the number of what we label “swing states”. The 2024 election had just seven swing states – the lowest total in decades. Consequently, we have seen a hardening of party or individual candidate loyalty amongst voters.

Interestingly, despite the fall in his approval ratings, Trump’s support amongst his own party members has remained the same. Indeed, a recent poll found that the president commanded an 87% approval rating amongst registered Republicans – unchanged from six months ago and higher than the approval ratings of both Obama and George Bush who polled at just 78% amongst their own party members at this time into their second term. It is thus difficult to see any blood red states being flipped in 2026 – despite the Democrat momentum.

Three states up for election that have more than 1% chance of flipping to the Dems are Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. The former two, however, are the former seats of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. For these seats to be flipped, it would take a huge political scalp, and one would imagine that a lot of GOP funding will be directed to defending those seats. Iowa, meanwhile, was won by Trump by 13 points in 2024 and has only got more and more red since Trump’s rise in 2016.

The Democrat resources will also be stretched as they face several tough defences in swing states such as Michigan and Georgia – both of which went red in 2024.

So, for me, despite the general swing in momentum towards the Dems, it will be highly unlikely to see them hold both the House and the Senate next year.

Tips:

Democrat House and Republican Senate control – 8/11 (William Hill)

Republicans over 50 Senate seats – 8/13 (Ladbrokes)

Written by @jyvon