Streeting/Starmer 2026
Wes Streeting gave an interview to the observer a few days ago where he talked about rejoining the customs union, that is very much targeted at the Labour grassroots rather than the vast majority of the PLP. Europe is coming back on the agenda at a fast pace but there’s not really any appetite by Labour MPs to open up those old arguments but that’s not necessarily true of the grassroots. I think there is quite a large pro-EU base there and that’s also true with both the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. The extraordinary briefing back in November where N10 basically accused him of organizing a coup, they felt he was trying to get 100 MPs to go over the top and challenge Starmer. That was clearly an attempt by N10 to “kneecap” him but it failed, what it ended up doing was unshackling Streeting, he clearly thought it came directly from McSweeney and ever since that moment he has been unleashed. The observer interview is key here, basically he knows that joining the customs union is a big red line for Starmer and I think that was a significant moment. He is now the person to watch over the next 3-4 months as we get closer to the local elections. The problem is for Streeting he doesn’t have the votes on the left, I think he could well be the one who ends up challenging Starmer but doesn’t end up wearing the crown at the end. This is because he’s still considered to be on the blairite wing of the party and the vast majority of the PLP are just not in that camp and they don’t really like what he stands for.
Over recent months Streeting has tried his best to bring Rayner in alongside in some sort of deal but she’s having none of it, apparently she is not interested. The big elephant in the room is his own personal situation in Ilford North, the actual ability to survive at the next general election. If Labour continue down this path in the polls; forget about it, he literally has around a 500 vote majority in his constituency. A pro-Palestine candidate will challenge him there, she came very close last time and she will be much better resourced this time around. Streeting has a uphill battle to become the next leader of the party. I think he deserves to be at the top of the market because he will definitely put his hat in the ring nut a lot of questions remain and he is vulnerable to a challenger from the soft-left whom have favour with the membership.
Has recent shenanigans given Starmer more chance of surviving 2026? The potential cancelling of up to 63 council elections and 4 new mayoral elections is not a good look and hasn’t gone down well with their rivals, even many in the PLP are not happy with the decision to do so. They see it as giving Reform more ammunition and feeds into the sense of denying democracy and running scared of the electorate. I am beginning to think that the cancelling of so many elections could make it easier for N10 to say well you can’t necessarily paint the full picture of how bad we did because we don’t have the full results. The King’s speech is also penciled in for 6 days after the results come in, makes it very difficult for Labour MPs to launch an immediate leadership challenge as it would be complete chaos. For all those reasons above he could well still be in post next year along with the chancellor? N10 are also happy with recent polls coming out regarding Reform and they have found more angles in on targeting their weak spots. Similar to the situation facing Kemi, the economy is now the focus on peoples minds compared to the situation 6 months ago on Immigration. If this continues then Farage is going to have to find a new message to sell to voters and try and get him back in that poll position to be the next Prime Minister.
Similar to the recent (Can Kemi survive 2026) blog I am advising those who are on at plenty odds against for Starmer to exit 2026 to start looking at your position, are you happy to take the early win considering he is now as short as 4/6. I do still believe he is more likely to exit next year but after recent events I have to ask those questions. 5/6 or 10/11 is probably where I would be at now. This will apply also to the Reeves Exit Date, we advised her to go next year at EVS but she is going nowhere for now if Starmer stays. You are now getting 4/9 for her so same applies here, but you could also make the case that she becomes a possible fall guy along with McSweeney in some sort of ultimatum presented by backbenchers and the soft-left, those two would have to go for Starmer’s survival along with a few soft-left figures re-entering cabinet.
Written by Brad