The Case for a Green Victory in Gorton & Denton

In two weeks time, the House of Commons will welcome a new MP, for the Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton. To the surprise of the national media, that MP is now likely to represent the Green Party of England and Wales.

When the Gorton and Denton By-Election was announced, there was speculation over whether Manchester Mayor Andy Burham would be allowed to stand. In recent months, Burnham has been vying for a parliamentary seat as part of a blatantly transparent effort to replace Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. Burnham has rediscovered himself in the role of lead critic amongst the Labour ranks, pressuring the government to tackle wealth inequality and regional inequality with more ambition.

The assumption amongst Labourites was that a Burnham candidacy would almost guarantee victory in the by-election, owing to his overwhelming popularity across Greater Manchester. However, Burnham was rejected as a candidate through a nominations process widely criticised as undemocratic and seen by many as another factional move against the party’s left. The decision to block Andy Burnham's bid to become the MP for Gorton and Denton now appears to have placed Labour at serious risk of defeat.

A week after the by-election was called, the Green Party's odds of winning went from 6/1 to 4/5, as bookmakers reacted to Labour's self-inflicted selection crisis. Now their odds are as low as 2/5, implying a roughly 70% chance of victory. The bookmakers believe Labour have a less than 10% chance of victory, placing them at around 10/1. Reform UK are priced at around 5/2, giving them a 25% probability of victory, although this price perhaps underestimates Reform’s chances.

Gorton and Denton spans two local authority areas, Manchester and Tameside. The Manchester side of the constituency is fertile ground for the Greens. Like the rest of Manchester City Council, the Gorton segment of the constituency contains high numbers of students, graduates, Muslims, and 2019 Labour voters. These are demographics that shifted modestly towards the Greens in 2024, that are now considered as central to the party's expanding base of support. The Tameside segment of the constituency is more favourable towards Reform UK, with a high White-British population and lower rates of graduates. Although Tameside traditionally has lower turnout rates than Manchester, so Reform face an uphill struggle if they are to win this by-election.

At the 2024 General Election, Green vote share in the constituency was 13% compared to an average of 6% nationally. With the Greens now polling around 15% nationally, their vote share in Gorton and Denton should be comfortably in the twenties. But Labour’s scandal ridden start to 2026 may have transformed the Greens from dark horses to front runners in Gorton and Denton. The party has amassed thousands of volunteers to flood the seat, plastering the area with posters, leaflets, and signs. Party insiders believe they will achieve at least 30% of the vote.

As well as an active and hopeful volunteer force, the Greens also have the benefit of a strong candidate. Plumber and plasterer Hannah Spencer was nominated by the local Green Party with over 80% of the vote. Spencer previously lived in Levenshulme, a key area for the Greens on the Gorton side of the constituency. Spencer now lives across Greater Manchester in Hale, where she was elected as a local councillor in 2023. She was the Green Party candidate for the 2024 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election, coming 5th with 7% of the vote, coming behind Andy Burnham and by-election opponent Nick Buckley (Advance UK).

Spencer is pivotal to the Greens’ chances in the by-election, her identity as a working-class, anti-establishment figure is in perfect juxtaposition to Reform UK’s candidate Matt Goodwin. As a GB News presenter, Goodwin has carved out a career as one of the main faces of Britain’s new right resurgence. Having a lifelong career in politics (previously a liberal academic studying the rise of the hard-right in Europe) Goodwin epitomises the “Westminster Elite” that have been viewed with increasing suspicion across the Red Wall in recent years. While Goodwin spent some of his earlier life in Manchester, he now lives in Hertfordshire.

Bookmakers, pollsters and psephologists all predict a close battle between the Greens and Reform, with the Greens slightly favoured. The closeness of this race will once again highlight the phenomenon that has defined recent by-elections in Caerphilly and Runcorn… Tactical Voting. There are traditionally two blocs in the British political sphere (Left and Right), voters usually switch between parties in the same bloc. However, the sheer unpopularity of Starmer’s Government has meant that left-wing voters cannot be relied on to tactically support Labour in a fight against Reform.

The fragmentation of the two traditional voting blocs has massively strengthened the Greens in this by-election, as the (non-Labour) left has swung behind the party. George Galloway’s Workers’ Party achieved 10% in Gorton & Denton in 2024 but have now dropped out and endorsed the Greens. “Your Party” also declined to run a candidate, with both Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana declaring their support for Hannah Spencer. This is significant for the Greens chances of victory, as a Workers’ Party candidacy would have picked up anywhere from 5-10%, drawing especially from Muslim voters in Levenshulme, Burnage and Longsight.

Now the path is clear for the Greens, they have a real shot at winning their first Northern constituency. A Green victory in Gorton and Denton would mark a watershed moment for the party, demonstrating that its appeal now extends beyond university towns and Southern cities into the urban North. Winning a parliamentary by-election in a traditionally safe Labour constituency would validate the Greens’ strategy of positioning themselves as a welcoming home for disillusioned left-wing voters. It would also strengthen Zack Polanski’s claim that the Greens are “here to replace the Labour Party.”

The bookmakers are confident that the Labour Party will finish third in this by-election. For Labour, such a defeat would raise uncomfortable questions about electoral coalition management under Keir Starmer. Coming third place in an extremely safe Red Wall seat would end the century-long narrative that Labour are the only electoral vehicle to prevent right-wing victories in England.

Gorton and Denton is not the only area where the Greens are predicted to gain from Labour. Several seats in the North have become competitive for the Greens since Labour’s collapse in the polls. Polling aggregators estimate the Greens would net seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, and Huddersfield if a General Election were held today, taking them all from the Labour Party.

Written by Oli.