May Day for the Mainstream Parties
May Day for the Mainstream Parties: an inflection Point is coming.
Much has been said about the apparent opinion poll ‘ceiling’ that Reform have supposedly hit in the last few months. However, I was interested in a remark made by Tom Harwood yesterday. Indeed, the GB News presenter pointed out that there was a clear inflection point in the opinion polls, around the time of the May local elections. Upon further inspection, one can see a dramatic widening of the Reform-Tory gap from single to double figures after a turquoise wave had swept across the country in May’s local election. As Harwood suggested “winning begets winning” – Reform’s electoral success transformed the party’s image from a protest movement to a credible alternative to the status quo.
Many commentators have suggested that Reform and the Tories are locked in some form of right-wing primary for the next general election. If this year’s local elections go just as well for Farage’s party, expect a second inflection point, as the last of the Conservative vote base realises that the supposed “Badenoch bounce” did not translate outside the Westminster bubble, and that Reform are now the main right-wing opposition to this Labour government.
The same can be said of the left, however. This morning, we have seen a lot of interesting movement in the markets for the Greens. Whilst some bookies are as short as 1/3 for the Greens to gain Gorton and Denton, others have shortened to a staggering 12/1 for the Greens to win the most seats at the next general election. This is astonishing when you consider they opened at 250/1 with some firms, PBC have consistently highlighted the move from 100/1 in recent months.
These shortening prices could be explained by the preparation of this inflection point on the left. Indeed, if the Greens were to consistently outperform Labour in opinion polling (having already overtaken them in some recent polls), and if they were to prove their electability via by-election and major local election gains, then we may witness a tipping point where the British left-wing electorate begin to perceive the Greens as being in the strongest position to stop a Reform government and a Nigel Farage premiership. This would engender a complete collapse in the Labour vote.
May’s local elections will arguably be some of the most consequential in our lifetime. As well as being the catalyst to a Prime Minister’s resignation, we may also witness a further weakening of the former Labour-Tory two-party system, to the benefit of Reform and the Greens.
Expect both Reform and the Greens to continue shortening in the Most Seats market, to the detriment of Labour and the Conservatives whose prices look weak.
The Greens are also currently 7/1 to win more seats than Labour at the next general election. If you fancy the Greens to take Denton & Gorton, and perform as well in London as opinion polling suggests, expect this price to shorten too!
PBC Value Angle
Reform – Most Seats (2.32)
We expect Reform to shorten in the Most Seats market. They have previously reached a historical low of 1.85, and we anticipate they could return to a similar price following the May elections.
Labour (3.7) and Conservatives (6.0) – Most Seats
Both parties look likely to drift. Their current prices appear shorter than expected, likely factoring in the possibility of a revival or bounce under new leadership. We believe this is misguided. Both parties have lost significant trust and support among the electorate, and many voters are looking for something new. We expect both Reform and the Greens to continue professionalising and maintaining momentum. Strong results in May would leave the two main parties under serious pressure.
Reform Majority (3.8) and No Overall Majority (1.8)
Both prices could shorten. Labour and Conservative majorities appear increasingly unlikely due to collapsing support across many parts of the UK electorate. PBC previously highlighted No Overall Majority at 10/11 as value, and we continue to believe this is the most likely outcome if Reform do not secure an outright majority.
Greens to Win Most Seats vs Labour – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
With the Greens gaining momentum and Labour facing significant challenges, we expect this price to shorten if current trends continue.
Kemi Badenoch to Exit in 2026 or 2027 (4/5)
There are 19 months from the result of the May local elections. If the Conservatives continue to struggle, pressure on her leadership will intensify. If she survives this year, the 2027 exit price could come under further pressure as questions grow over whether she has had enough time to turn the party’s fortunes around.