The case for a Conservative Comeback

“The Conservative party is dead”. These were the words of Reform leader Nigel Farage after this year’s local election results began to trickle in. Reform’s gains that night were mainly at the expense of the Conservative party who lost an eye-watering 676 council seats, as well as losing control of every single council they were defending.

These set of election results came less than a year after Rishi Sunak’s historic general election defeat in which the Tories amassed the lowest seat total in the party’s history.

Last month, whilst one Ipsos poll gave the Conservatives their lowest intended vote share (15%) since polls began, a YouGov poll had the Tories in fourth place, behind the Lib Dems.

There’s no denying that the numbers are looking grim for Kemi Badenoch’s party. But if a week is a long time in politics, then the four years before the next general election will feel like an eternity. One must remember that the British Conservative party is the most successful democratic political machine in human history.

The greatest worry for many at CCHQ is their apparent war of two fronts that the party currently faces. Indeed, whilst the Tories haemorrhaged votes to Reform in most parts of rural England, the Lib Dems took control of Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Shropshire.

For many, this spells an identity crisis at the heart of the party. Do the Tories move more towards the right on social issues to win back the red wall and other Brexit-voting areas of the country - the winning formula for Boris Johnson. Or, do they move back to the centre to create a more ‘moderate’ coalition that wins back the blue wall - the winning formula for David Cameron.

The latter proposal is founded upon the erroneous presumption that voters switching from the Tories to the Lib Dems are doing so because they are naturally more moderate centrist ‘Cameroon’ types that no longer saw a home in a post-Brexit Conservative party. A University of Manchester study found that this was not the case at all. Particularly in the home counties, many of the areas that switched from the Tories to the Lib Dems in the last election have a socially conservative electorate. Indeed, polling discovered that a higher-than-average percentage found that immigration was too high whist a majority also supported bringing back the death penalty.

Ideologically, the Conservative party should be more of a natural home for rural Southern England than the Lib Dems. The same study found that the prime factor turning voters away from the Tories last election was a breakdown in trust and government competency, or lack thereof. Once the Conservative party has been able to rebuild a competent and trustworthy image, they will begin to see their natural electorate come home. But as the post-Brown Labour party found out, rebuilding trust with the public can take time…

A More in Common poll found that the British public felt that the winter fuel allowance was by far Labour’s worst decision since it had entered power. This may suggest that Reform’s success in those local elections may only be fleeting, as boomers were simply wishing to lend their vote to Farage’s party to express their frustration at the policy. The tightening of the polls in recent weeks may suggest likewise. In the UK’s growing gerontocracy, the boomer rules and when it comes to a general election, the boomer will often seek refuge in the “safe pair of hands”, i.e. the two traditional parties.

One thing is for certain. Kemi Badenoch will not lead the Conservative party into the next general election. According to the latest YouGov poll, Badenoch has reached an all-time low favourability with the public, with just 16% believing she has done a good job and over 50% believing she has done a bad job. Many Tory councillors chose to point the finger of blame at their leader for their lost seats.

The likelihood is that she will limp on like a wounded gazelle to the 2026 Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections where she will eventually meet her maker. Some bookies have gone odds-on for Badenoch 2026 exit date.

Her likely replacement is Robert Jenrick who has himself gone odds-on with some bookies to become the next Conservative leader. Love him or loathe him, the shadow justice secretary undoubtedly has the best comms of any sitting MP. Like his rival Farage, he has understood how to use social media effectively to cut through to the public. He appears to be the heir-apparent and, at times, many would be forgiven for believing he was the actual leader of the Conservatives.

Were Jenrick to become leader, the party would most likely begin to outflank Nigel Farage on the right. For example, unlike his predecessor, Jenrick is willing to take the tough decision of leaving the ECHR – a popular policy amongst Conservative members and the general public, according to a Whitestone Insight survey. He has also been one of the most vocal voices around the grooming gangs and has not been afraid to use the language of ‘anti-white racism’.

A swing to the right, and an opportunity to get one over his old nemesis, may persuade the likes of Rupert Lowe to cross the floor. After all, he has continually refused to rule out taking the Tory whip in the future. Consequently, we may conjure up a slightly more absurd hypothetical future where Tom Skinner is the Conservative mayoral candidate – already a close friend of both Lowe and Jenrick. A bosh!

Council elections don’t always paint a national picture. It was, however, interesting to see last week’s Newark West Division council by-election in which the Tories regained their seat from Reform in, non-other, than Robert Jenrick’s constituency. This was Reform’s first ever electoral defense, and it failed to hold off the party currently polling at under 20%. They will soon learn that gaining power and holding onto power are two different games.

The Conservative party has a long rebuilding process ahead of it. But it has what Reform still lack – a loyal base (albeit reduced to a rump) and effective party machinery. Despite its recent electoral failure, the Tories are still the most financially backed party, having received over £3.3 million in donations in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Financial Times. This is significantly more than Labour’s £2.5 million and Reform’s £1.5 million in donations (most coming out of Richard Tice’s pocket).

4 years until the next general election, 4 more years of Starmer, 4 more years of Farage fallouts. A change in leadership and direction, count the Conservatives out at your own peril.

Latest odds:

Conservatives Most seats – 5/1 @williamhill

Conservative Majority – 16/1 @williamhill

Robert Jenrick Next PM after Starmer – 12/1 @ladbrokes

Written by Julien (Election analyst) (@jwyvon)