A Punt of McGuinness please
Still three months away, the election for Ireland’s next President is already a hot contest. Michael D Higgins’ replacement will become the country’s tenth President. It’s a tough act to follow. Higgins arrived in office with the biggest presidential vote in Irish history and he leaves with his popularity largely intact.
Betting on his successor is a fool’s game but that’s never stopped yours truly. Lodging advance excuses, it is still far from clear who will be running. Despite there being only two confirmed candidates so far, Oddschecker provides an eclectic list of 88 names. Conor McGregor is 100/1.
If parting money on candidates who might not even win in their own household fails to appeal, who are the serious possibles?
Mairead McGuinness is a 6/5 worthy favourite. She is Fine Gael’s nomination. There was no contest. McGuinness is a serious politician who, as an ex-EU Commission Vice-President and MEP, has forgotten more about Europe than most of us will ever know. A logical choice, she will handle the international diplomacy side of the role with aplomb.
Catherine Connolly is 5/2 second favourite. Those odds look short enough but Higgins is from the Left (ex-Labour Party) and Connolly likewise (ex-Labour, now Independent) so this would mean a continuity President in terms of political outlook (they are supposed to be above politics in the role but…). 5/2 is only takeable however, if Sinn Féin backs Connolly as the candidate for the Left and Centre Left. If Sinn Féin enters the fray, I’d be wary of 15/2 let alone 5/2 with the Left split.
That Sinn Féin possible is most likely Mary Lou McDonald. She is 6/1 but you need ‘Non-Runner No Bet’ insurance here. It is far from clear that the Sinn Féin President – or her party - wants to risk entering the fray. It might be safer for the Shinners to back Connolly as a left unity candidate. The Sinn Féin candidate did badly last presidential election. But Liadh Ni Riada was/is far less well-known than Mary Lou. A McDonald victory is not an outlandish idea. Can the island’s most popular party – just add its general election votes South and North – credibly abstain? Sinn Féin is demanding that Northerners get to vote in these contests. If enfranchised Southerners can’t vote for the party either might look odd.
Deidre Heenan (12/1) appears the most favoured candidate of Fianna Fáil. At one point it appeared possible that party leader and Taoiseach, Michéal Martin, might go for the job. I’m slightly surprised he hasn’t. Martin has led his party for 14 years. Only de Valera ever did a longer stint. Martin is arguably the only person you’d back with any confidence to beat Mairead McGuinness. Former Fianna Fáil Taoiseach and a major Good Friday Agreement luminary, Bertie Ahern, has also been whispered (well, more than whispered) as a possible candidate. Heenan is a good choice though. As an Ulster University academic, she may lack sufficient profile south of the border but she will undoubtedly shine in the campaign. Some Fine Gaelers might harrumph about a northerner heading south. But that didn’t stop another academic, Mary McAleese winning in 1997 (admittedly with a higher profile south of the border). And Heenan could ever so politely, point out that Belfast and Derry are hundreds of kilometers closer to Dublin than Brussels and Strasbourg, where Fine Gael’s favourite has spent much of this century.
Perhaps the only safe bet you might want to take on is that the next President of Ireland will be the third female postholder – but you’re looking at odds of around 1/50 given the frontrunners. The shortest-priced male is however, a very interesting candidate. He’s a Lord as well. Of the Dance, that is. Michael Flatley is 14/1. Flatley is seeking nominations. If he is indeed a contestant, he could take votes from all over the place.
McGuinness ought to win regardless, with vote transfers from Heenan getting her over the line. McGuinness looks reasonably priced – you can more than double your money after all - and Heenan, given the strength of the Fianna Fáil electoral machine, perhaps generously priced at 12/1. But it’s not a contest to test your bookmaker limits.
Written by Jon Tonge — Professor of British and Irish Politics at the University of Liverpool.