Next Chancellor?
With Rachel from accounts delivering her last budget in my opinion, I thought its time to look at the Next Chancellor market. A market by the way that has not moved much since opening, and definitely doesn’t get the attention it deserves. Reeves is now (4/7) to exit in 2026 from as big as (6/5) only a few weeks ago.
The big question is does Reeves go before Starmer?, and its very important because if I knew the answer to this alone I would have two completely different markets. At the moment the firms have priced it up in the likelihood of her going prior to a Starmer exit. I personally believe that the time has gone for Starmer to get rid of Reeves now due to his increasingly week position and she has been very loyal from the get go. He just cant do it, this would be the end of him. This project from the beginning has been headed by both of them, as far back when they were in opposition and campaigning at the last election.
So if we take the position that Starmer resigns in 2026 or loses a leadership challenge, Reeves will still be chancellor until a new Prime Minister is in office. Then that new prime minister will appoint a new chancellor, the question is who will that new prime minister be? So lets go through the options:
Streeting — Currently the favourite to be Next PM at (4/1), most likely his chancellor would be someone who has supported his leadership bid or a big name that isnt alligned with him but has chosen to support him. Now I think two names stand-out here, and they are Mahmood (20/1) and Jones (7/1). Would he want Mahmood to stay at the home office and deliver? but she is definitely a Streeting supporter and there are rumors they are on side in a potential joint leadership bid. Jones is a loyal servant of the Starmer premiership and is seen to be smart and capable, having his support in a leadership bid would be a huge bonus plus his past experience at the treasury. Chancellor is definately a position he would want, maybe the support of Streeting would be the prize. An outsider is Rayner, there’s a sense he needs someone from the soft/left onboard, but is she too much of a risk in that role considering her lack of experience and also her latest issue with tax.
Rayner or soft/left — So we are focusing on Rayner to be Next PM at (7/1) and other names like Milliband, Haigh, Powell and Nandy. So it could be any of those names who take up next prime minister and next chancellor. Also if a soft/left candidate wins, do they reach out to Streeting to be Next Chancellor. Someone who is on the right of the party and is known to be fiscally responsible and this could bring the party together after a recent leadership election.
If Reeves does go before Starmer then I want to be on Darren Jones at (7/1), important to note that the bond markets and the rest will only contemplate a next chancellor that is more aligned with the right of the party and he fits the bill. He has been protected somewhat by leaving the treasury and moving into a new role at N10, very close to the Prime Minister and will be a fresh face coming into the treasury without the recent baggage.
I want to be against both at the top of the market, they are McFadden (5/4) and Bell at (7/2). Plenty of value in this market against them both, unfortunately there are limited names available to back with the firms and I hope they add more names into the mix. At one stage we may get this market on the @betfairexchange.
So my selections currently are JONES (7/1) STREETING (14/1) MAHMOOD (20/1) , those three against the field pays (3/1). If we had more names available to back on the soft/left then I would look to play some of those at bigger prices or lay the top two on the exchanges if it were currently possible.
Written by @brad_dylon