Can Kemi survive 2026?

This budget was an absolute gift for both Kemi and the Conservatives, its come at a time when she has been performing much better at the dispatch box including a good conference and a small jump in the polls. She didn’t waste no time either with a superb response to Reeves in the commons after Reeves delivered her budget, you could hear the enthusiastic tory MP's behind her enjoying Kemi going at it. There is no doubt about it that she will gain a lot of confidence from this and she has more ammunition to go at both Labour and Starmer.

With Labour now lurching to the left on economics specifically as they try and appease their backbenchers I believe over the next year or so this will be at the forefront of the publics minds, the whole conversation will change compared to most of 2025. This is where the Conservatives are on much better ground, they can show and create distance between themselves and Labour and also Reform. The Reform party is really struggling with its economic policies and they know it, mixed messaging on what they actually are and how they are going to pay for a lot of their savings/cuts. The Conservative party can now go at those Reform councils that have promised the world but haven’t really delivered what they said they would. Kemi can also use the appeasement from Starmer/Reeves to her advantage by highlighting manifesto promises and the weakness of them both, create more tension between them and their backbenchers.

If we look at 2025, the conversation was mainly focused on Immigration and even though I still think it will play a huge part, for the time being Mahmood has delivered a favour to Kemi by shutting it down with her strong approach. This is what was needed as it gave Reform a huge platform to constantly go on the attack, and the Conservative party were left behind unable to comment due to there previous terrible record in office. We also have to look at the Reform polling too, the latest YouGov poll had them on 25% and the Conservatives at 18%, we are seeing this more often. The goal for 2026 is to bridge that gap even more and there’s no denying that this would be seen as Kemi delivering in her role and they are on the up, patience and perseverance paying off. There are a few in Reform who are becoming nervous over many things, the last month or so has not been good and many are already saying the wheels are falling off and both the tory party and Labour have found a few opportunities to exploit. Badenoch was literally my banker 6-12 months ago. we bet her at 7/2 and took plenty odds against to exit in 2026, but now she looks to be in the safest position she’s has ever been in as both Starmer and Reeves look more vulnerable to exit next year. She went as short as 4/6 a few weeks ago but is now at EVS.

There are few other factors why she is more likely to stay and that’s if Starmer ends up resigning or is pushed out by his party, why would the Conservatives do the same? Its a big scalp for Kemi and an opportunity to reset against a potential new soft/left prime minister. This would be a great opportunity, she would fancy her chances against the likes of Rayner or a Milliband. This is why if Starmer exits in 2026 her chances of survival are very high. So what if the May elections go terribly bad? Well the mood in the party is that they are already expecting it and would a different leader made any difference to the results. Badenoch has also been very smart, before conference she kept the wolves away form her door by going strong on the ECHR policy, including announcing that any Conservative MP standing at the next election has to be in favour of leaving the ECHR and implementing it. This was a key factor that made many on the right of the party feel slightly worried that she isn’t going far enough and trying to appease the left of the party. I personally think the conversation has moved on from 5 years ago, majority of the moderate wing now understand that leaving the ECHR is the only way to get a grip and prevent that space for Reform. Robert Jenrick has lost his appeal somewhat by the measures taken by Badenoch over the last few months, exactly what difference is there between them both on policy now?. Also its worth noting that no further defections have taken place since Kruger, many in the party were expecting it. The Conservative Party continue to have the highest donations compared to the rest of the parties, and I expect that to keep rising especially after this budget. Bringing Cleverly back into cabinet is also a plus, and I expect she has another card to play by reaching out to the new intake of talented MPs like Timothy/Lam and Rankin and potentially bringing them into cabinet in the future. Just after conference there was a members poll conducted and it told us that Jenrick would beat Badenoch by 7% if their were a leadership election in October. Now that is not much at a time when she was at her lowest, and I think if that poll was done today it would be a lot closer.

So what do we do? those who have backed her to exit in 2026 or big priced 2026 exit date doubles with Starmer. Well I wouldn’t get too carried away as there is no guarantee Starmer is gone next year and a week is a longtime in politics. I currently have her at 5/4 to stay now in 2026, a few months back I had her at 4/6. The strongest bet is for anyone whos on her to not be leader at the next general election at the likes of 10/11, if your in that spot you don’t need to do anything as you can now back her at 4/1 to exit 2029 or later. The lay price for 2026 is around 11/8 as its a poor %, something to look at if that % improves and you want to lay the 2026. Maybe look at backing 2027/2028 to build a position with the likelihood of those prices shortening. At the moment the 2026 double is not worthwhile, its been absolutely hammered and rightly so but id stay well away. Jenrick price is also worth looking at, I expect his price to drift the longer Kemi looks safe. But he’s still in a very strong position to be next leader and it goes to show how important it is to get the price with everything you touch. You will get spots like this where your strong position turns against you due to the circumstances changing but if there’s not much room in your price you become vulnerable.

To conclude, there is a few reasons above why she is now more likely to stay then ever before. A lot is down to her and her party and the way she has gone about improving policy positions, how the circumstances have changed within the Labour Party and the potential exit of Starmer, the budget has opened up better ground for Badenoch and her party, the unease around the reform polling and their economic policy positions, the potential of the economy now taking a bigger space over immigration. And I will leave you with this — If Starmer resigns and there is a bloodbath for the direction of the Labour Party and a public longwinded leadership election why would the Conservatives do the same? what benefit is it to them. How bad does the May elections have to be? Do they do better then expected? Does the party give her another year, maybe first half of 2027? What happens to Reform?

Written by @brad_dylon