James Cleverly?

James Cleverly has often been discussed as a potential Conservative candidate for Mayor of London, but a recent piece by PoliticsHome suggests he appears more open to the idea than ever before. There is a growing argument within Conservative circles that Labour’s Sadiq Khan is more vulnerable to a defeat than at any point in recent years.

Cleverly, who previously served as a member of the London Assembly, is said to be seriously considering a run. The Conservatives have not selected a sitting MP as their mayoral candidate since Zac Goldsmith in 2016, but the party is increasingly desperate for a recognisable figure capable of reconnecting with London voters. In that respect, Cleverly’s profile and name recognition could prove to be a significant advantage.

With Kemi Badenoch’s prospects of leading the Conservatives into the next general election improving significantly over the past six months, the likelihood of an imminent leadership contest has diminished considerably. That matters for James Cleverly, who has long been viewed as one of the most credible contenders to succeed her should her leadership falter. Despite this, he still remains the bookmakers’ favourite to become the next Conservative leader, with odds currently sitting around 4/1.

Since being brought back into the Shadow Cabinet by Badenoch, Cleverly has been publicly loyal to her leadership, repeatedly insisting that his primary focus is helping return the Conservatives to government and getting Badenoch into Number 10. At the same time, he has emerged as one of the party’s most aggressive critics of Reform UK, strongly opposing any suggestion of an electoral pact and often taking a combative tone when discussing the party.

Ideologically, Cleverly sits on the more moderate wing of the Conservatives. He has previously voiced concerns about some positions adopted by the party’s right, including proposals to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. As a social liberal with experience as both Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary, he could present a more centrist Conservative image to London voters. His background as a mixed-race politician may also broaden his appeal in one of the world’s most diverse cities, particularly at a time when issues around crime, policing, and community cohesion remain prominent in the capital.

Another angle is that there’s a case to be made that this could be a potential springboard for Cleverly to become a future Tory leader. It’s a route to power that has worked previously for Boris Johnson and maybe even Andy Burnham (Mayor of Greater Manchester). This could be a smart career move for him.

Things didn’t go very well at all in the local elections in his patch of Braintree and across Essex as a whole. There’s a serious chance that he, along with many other Essex MPs, could lose their seats to Reform at the next general election. He’s clearly aware of this, and the result may have hardened his intentions, given what he’s likely to face.

What was interesting was a recent interview with Adam Bolton on Times Radio, where Cleverly didn’t deny that he was considering a run. He said it “is an important job and it would be foolish to discount it,” clearly leaving the door open. He went on to note that his constituents in Braintree are affected by the policies of Labour in London, adding that Sadiq Khan’s decisions “have a ripple effect” all the way to his own constituents.

James Cleverly opened at 8/1 in the next London mayoral market and has been the shortest-priced potential Conservative candidate throughout, but his odds have since drifted out to 16/1. We think he may well end up being their candidate, and his price would likely shorten significantly if that were confirmed.

So far, we’ve seen the rewards of building positions early on potential candidates with the expectation that their odds would shorten. Zoe Garrett, for example, backed in at 12/1 from 50/1, and now confirmed candidate Laila Cunningham, backed into 2/1 from 14/1. This has also created an opportunity to back Sadiq Khan at a better price of 11/4.

Of course, a lot can change between now and the election, but it’s hard to see many other potential Tory candidates standing out as much as Cleverly. We highlighted a few others in a previous blog, but none appear to have the same profile or recognition.

Back James Cleverly for Next London Mayor at 16/1 (available at Betfred, Ladbrokes, StarSports, Coral)

Also, if he does become the Conservative Party’s mayoral candidate, his odds in the next Conservative leader market are likely to drift significantly. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on that market from now on.