The Next Chancellor market
It was probably a smart move by PBC to push for 18 additional names to be added to the Next Chancellor market on Betfair. The market had been shaped around the assumption that Rachel Reeves might leave her role sooner rather than later, which led firms to price it in a fairly narrow and shallow way.
There was very little representation from soft-left figures outside the current cabinet, leaving the market lacking depth and alternative angles. As a result, it often felt fragile—evidenced by frequent suspensions—and wasn’t especially robust in terms of pricing. At the moment, liquidity and coverage remain limited, with only Ladbrokes and StarSports actively offering prices on the market.
If you recall the Christmas tip we sent out in October, we were strongly against Reeves remaining in post through 2026 at odds of 11/10. That position is looking increasingly solid now. With current odds at 4/9, there’s a strong chance this will come under further pressure after the local elections. The timeline for replacing a chancellor is very much shorter than for a prime minister.
We’ve consistently highlighted the early value in this market, particularly with Ed Miliband, who has shortened significantly from 33/1 to around 6/1 at best. In our November blog, we also pointed to Powell, Haigh, and Rayner as potential candidates for a return to cabinet, outlining why they were worth pricing into the market.
With Starmer under mounting pressure and increasingly forced to appease the party’s soft left, the situation looks set to deteriorate further—particularly when Labour performs poorly in the upcoming local elections, following on from the disaster in the Gorton and Denton by-election which emboldened the soft left more.
Wes Streeting (14/1) now appears to be on the back foot after the Mandelson saga, with any momentum behind a potential leadership bid fading. As a result, he looks like one to rule out of this market for now. Previously, he had been strongly touted as a potential successor to Reeves—seen as someone with fiscal credibility and appeal to the party’s right—but that case has weakened considerably.
This could represent a last roll of the dice for Keir Starmer to reset and retain his leadership after the local elections. Rumours suggest that both Rachel Reeves and Wes Streeting could be moved aside to make way for figures such as Powell, Haigh and Rayner. Such a shift would mark another significant win for that wing of the party, following the high-profile resignation of McSweeney, and would underline the growing influence of the soft left within Labour.
It’s difficult to imagine any of these three—Powell, Haigh, or Rayner—being suddenly propelled into the next chancellor role, but it’s not entirely out of the question. If Starmer emerges from the local elections severely weakened, he may feel compelled to offer the most significant prize available to stave off a leadership challenge. The real question is whether even that would be enough to secure his position.
If Starmer were challenged and Rayner took over, the same names would remain in play for the chancellorship. It’s hard to see her, or someone like Miliband, appointing a chancellor from the party’s right. I once thought there might be a pathway for Streeting under a Rayner leadership—some kind of strategic pact to unify the party and stabilize markets after a soft-left leader took charge—but that seems increasingly unlikely given the growing factional tensions.
Could figures like John Healey (12/1) or Jonathan Reynolds (12/1) step into that role if needed? They may be among the few capable of bridging the divide while providing credibility in the chancellor position.
From the outset, we’ve aimed to challenge the top three names in the market: McFadden (2/1), Bell (6/1), and Jones (7/1). These were all considered front-runners when the market first opened—but that was under very different circumstances than those now facing both the party and Starmer.
A lot has changed since then. In particular, Bell and Jones are closely associated with Reeves and the Treasury, which may limit their appeal in the current reshuffle scenario. This makes them less likely to emerge as viable contenders compared with the evolving dynamics in the party.
I see Ed Miliband as very well-positioned to become chancellor, whether before Starmer exits or afterwards. His odds are likely to shorten further, and for good reason. He appears to want the role, bringing both experience and credibility as the most seasoned soft-left Labour MP in Parliament. He’s also uniquely well-placed to broker or be part of a deal to support a potential leadership candidate, which strengthens his case even more.
Honestly, it might sound a bit surprising, but I actually see Rayner as a real possibility—if Starmer were to offer her the chancellorship as part of a broader cabinet reshuffle that brings others back in to shore up support. It could be a strategic move to neutralize any leadership challenge, and in that context, giving her the top Treasury job starts to make sense.
It’s a very intriguing market—one that’s often overlooked—but it’s closely tied to both Starmer’s and Reeves’ potential exit dates. I expect it will attract more attention as things develop. There are also plenty of outsiders worth considering, and there’s significant value in taking on the current top three, who are already heavily favoured in the market.
Check out the new names added to the Next Chancellor market on the Betfair Exchange, where only £18k has been matched so far.