Andy Burnham (Labour)
Burnham has effectively had his John Major-style “put up or shut up” moment. Having secured the leadership, the conditions for a successful internal challenge simply do not exist.
Labour is in government. MPs are overwhelmingly invested in making his premiership work. There is no obvious rival waiting in the wings and no organised faction capable of removing him.
Barring a catastrophic scandal or economic collapse, Burnham is likely to remain leader until the next election.
The only realistic route to him being the first to go is a very specific scenario: he calls an early election, loses it, and resigns immediately afterwards. Otherwise, Labour's internal incentives all point towards stability.
But the big question around Burnham is: WILL he call an early election? I believe there are three significant reasons why the ‘King of the North’ may want to pull the trigger early:
a. Polling. Having been lagging Reform in the polls for almost a year-and-a-half, Labour now find themselves consistently ahead, and sometimes four or five points clear, of both Nigel Farage’s party and the Conservatives. Remember, in an era of five-party politics, 30% of the vote share may be enough for a majority.
Research shows that most political leaders’ popularity peaks in their first six months in power. So, whilst some polls still have Labour currently missing out on a majority, it may be their only time to cut their losses, before they suffer a further plunge in the polls.
Reform continue to suffer from internal issues, ranging from Farage’s financial investigations, to factional infighting between the OG Reformers, and the Tory defectees.
Burnham also enjoys a positive approval rating – the only leader of a Westminster party to currently do so. Meanwhile, Farage’s approval ratings continue to plummet, whilst the Clacton by-election highlighted the growing strength of the anti-Farage vote. This is significant when thinking about the possibility of an early election as it is clear that Labour would most likely benefit more from a tactical vote when opposing Farage’s Reform today, rather than the possibility of facing a rejuvenated Tory party in 2029.
b. Mandate. Labour was elected in 2024 on Starmer’s Labour manifesto which underlined economic prudence, following Liz Truss’ mini budget disaster. The economic constraints placed upon the government may be difficult for the anti-neoliberal Burnham administration to navigate. He may thus go back to the nation to seek a fresh mandate for a more investment-heavy programme.
c. A divided right. A local by-election which took place in Dover last week should be sounding alarm bells on the right. Indeed, despite amassing over 55% of the vote, no party on the right was able to win the seat, with Reform on 27.5% of the vote, the Tories on 17, and Restore receiving just under 11% of the vote share. This splitting of the vote allowed the Greens to gain the seat from the Conservatives with just 28% of the vote.
The second preference voting at the Manchester mayoral by-election also highlighted that the left bloc is currently far more united than the right.
If Burnham were to go to the country tomorrow, he would be sure to gain many seats up and down the country on a reduced vote share, thanks to a three-way split on the right.
Overall, there is great incentive for Burnham to gamble. But after all, it is still a gamble. Lest we forget Theresa May surrendering a 20-point lead in the polls to Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour when she called an early election.
If you do believe the Prime Minister could go early, then 10/1 for Burnham to leave his post first could look like great value in just a few months’ time.
Potential next Labour leader: PBC highlighted John Healey as a possible outsider at 50/1.
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Kemi Badenoch (Conservative)
Having once been odds-on to be removed as Tory leader in 2026, Kemi Badenoch is arguably in a stronger position than many assume.
The key point is that she is currently outperforming her party. Conservative leaders usually become vulnerable when colleagues conclude somebody else could do better. There is little evidence of that today.
Recent polling has shown signs of the Conservatives recovering into second place ahead of Reform UK. Lord Ashcroft's polling in particular has suggested that when voters are asked about the next general election rather than a hypothetical contest tomorrow, the Conservatives remain competitive. On a personal level, her approval ratings have recovered significantly and placed her in positive approval in some cases – a rare feat for British politicians these days.
More importantly, Badenoch has provided the party with a clear ideological direction. Whether one agrees with it or not, she has shifted the Conservatives decisively to the right and ended years of internal uncertainty about what the party stands for.
Potential rivals are also thin on the ground. Many of the most obvious challengers have either tied themselves closely to her agenda or have defected to Reform UK. The traditional Tory right is largely satisfied with the direction of travel.
The biggest threat would come from the opposite wing of the party. If Conservatives suffered another electoral setback and MPs concluded that the route back to power lay through the centre ground, Badenoch could become vulnerable to a challenge from the party's more moderate wing.
For now, however, there is little sign that the "wets" have the numbers required.
Potential Next Conservative Leader: PBC highlighted Nick Timothy at 33/1, and Tom Tugendhat at 25/1.
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Zack Polanski (Green)
At first glance, Polanski looks vulnerable.
He has been surrounded by negative headlines, including controversies over comments about policing and remarks linked to threats against Nigel Farage. The Greens have also slipped back towards the polling levels they enjoyed before Labour's change of leadership transformed the political landscape.
Unlike leaders of the larger parties, Polanski also faces a structural challenge. Under Green Party rules, leadership contests occur regularly, meaning he is guaranteed to face a fresh test in Autumn 2027 regardless of performance.
That creates a route to removal that does not exist for Burnham, Badenoch, Davey, or Farage.
The question is whether anybody can realistically beat him.
At present, that looks difficult. Much of the Green Party machinery is now populated by allies and supporters. This, however, has instigated some factional infighting within the Greens. Many of the old guard of the party, including MP Hannah Spencer’s mother, have been vocal in their criticism of the new, less ecologically minded, and more socially radical, membership.
The big news of Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP for Holborn and St Pancras, has presented Polanski with both an opportunity and a challenge. After having turned down the opportunity to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Polanski insisted that he would be standing in a London seat at the next General Election. Well, here is his opportunity. Should he run, he faces an extremely tricky task of overturning a large Labour majority – in an area in which they were already outpolled by Labour during Starmer’s nadir in the May Locals. Losing the by-election may have further damaging consequences on the authority of his leadership.
A moderate challenge to Polanski’s leadership next year would probably fail. However, an equally left-wing challenger with stronger organisational backing, and a greater political competency, may be more conceivable.
If the Prime Minister does not call an early election, we believe that Polanski and Farage are in the most danger of not making the starting line. The way the Green party is structured, however, makes us more confident of taking the 3/1 on Polanski to go first.
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Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats)
Davey's position remains remarkably secure.
The most obvious reason is simple: he keeps winning.
Despite the suggestion of “underperforming”, the Liberal Democrats have made gains at every election fought under his leadership – that’s six local elections and one general election! Leaders who continuously deliver additional MPs, councillors and local victories rarely face serious internal opposition.
His strategic challenge is maintaining the delicate balance between projecting an image of holding this Labour government to account whilst keeping that same government onside – hence Ed Davey’s late entry into the #StarmerOut club. The ideal Liberal Democrat outcome at the next election would no doubt be for Labour to lose their majority whilst also remaining the largest party in parliament. That could create a pathway towards electoral reform and a referendum on proportional representation, as part of potential Lib-Lab coalition talks.
There are risks. The Liberal Democrats have probably reached the point where their easy gains have been made. They are no longer simply the "none of the above" option on the ballot paper. Voters now have Reform UK, Greens and independents competing for protest votes.
There is also a natural ceiling to Liberal Democrat support, particularly in large parts of northern England where the party remains particularly weak in post-Brexit Britain.
There have been moans and groans around his leadership, according to some party sources but until the party begins to go backwards electorally, we believe Davey is safe.
Eventually the Conservatives will attempt to recover many of the more affluent rural southern seats lost to Davey's party. However, there is little evidence that process has begun. Recent local election results suggest the Liberal Democrat machine remains highly effective in this part of the country. As long as Davey holds onto the blue wall, his job is safe.
We’re surprised he’s 2/1 joint favourite with Coral and Ladbrokes, and will certainly be taking him on.
Potential Next Lib Dem Leader: PBC highlighted Callum Miller at 20/1 earlier this year.
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Nigel Farage (Reform UK)
The Clacton by-election will certainly have raised some eyebrows in the Farage camp. Despite Reform moderately building on their 2024 vote share, the concern for the party is the coalescence of the anti-Reform vote – on this occasion around novelty candidate Count Binface, but, on a more national level, around Andy Burnham’s Labour. Indeed, As Britain Elect’s Ben Walker pointed out, the voter turnout was far higher in the areas of Clacton where the Reform vote was weakest. The Farage brand has thus become rather toxic, with his approval ratings at similar levels to both Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer’s nadir.
Farage is simultaneously the strongest and weakest leader on this list.
On one hand, Reform UK is essentially built around him. No other figure comes remotely close to matching his profile, media reach or electoral appeal. Remove Farage and the party's entire proposition changes overnight. Just look at how the party was performing under Tice – they literally had two elected councillors across the whole country, and by-election candidates were losing their deposits for fun. The party may thus be well advised to sit tight and ride out the storm for now, and wait for Burnham’s popularity to inevitably wane.
On the other hand, history suggests that if any leader is capable of unexpectedly walking away, it is Farage. He has resigned, stood down, returned and re-emerged multiple times throughout his political career.
There are also genuine pressure points.
The £5 million crypto controversy continues to generate scrutiny and shows little sign of disappearing. Depending on how events develop, it could become a prolonged distraction rather than a short-lived story.
Farage also faces a different challenge from most party leaders: ambitious successors are circling. Figures such as Robert Jenrick and Zia Yusuf are frequently discussed as potential future leaders or power centres within the broader Reform movement.
Yet paradoxically that may strengthen Farage's position in the short term. None of those figures currently possesses enough authority to remove him. Reform remains a leader-centric party, and most members understand that Farage is still its biggest electoral asset.
The bigger danger is not a coup but burnout or self-inflicted exit.
If Reform's polling momentum stalls, if another by-election defeat damages the party's aura of inevitability, or if legal and financial controversies continue to dominate headlines, Farage could decide to walk away before anyone forces him out.
History suggests he is more willing than most politicians to make that decision.
Potential Next Reform Leader: PBC highlighted Zia Yusuf and Robert Jenrick in the Next PM market at 33/1 and 20/1.
Angle
Burnham at 10/1 is good value for those who believe he could call an early General Election.
If you believe he will see out his term, then Polanski looks the most at risk of not making it to the next General Election — and at 3/1, he presents value for the man we believe should really be favourite.
If you want to cover both options, you can also dutch the two at odds of 2/1: