Possible By-Elections in 2026
Kingston upon Hull East
Keir Starmer just cannot catch a break. And the possible triggering of a by-election in Hull East could spell more unwanted headlines for the government.
The threat of such a contest has been laid out on the table by Labour MP Karl Turner who has rather courageously sacrificed his own seat in protest of David Lammy’s proposal to scrap trial by jury.
Current polling has Reform as high as 46% of the vote share in Hull – a near certain gain for Farage’s men. Whether Starmer performs his umpteenth U-turn in order to avoid another embarrassing by-election defeat to Reform, only time will tell.
Aberdeen South
The seat of the current SNP Westminster Group leader Stephen Flynn. Back in November 2024, Flynn announced he had been selected as the candidate for the Aberdeen South and North Kincardine seat in the upcoming Holyrood election. His candidacy caused some controversy as many accused the Dundee-born man of hypocrisy for “double jobbing”. SNP party rules state that its members cannot hold seats in both the Scottish and Westminster parliament, a rule that was enforced as recently as 2021 when a by-election was called in Ardrie and Shotts after its MP Neil Grey was elected to the corresponding seat in Holyrood. Later that month, Flynn himself confirmed he would not be seeking a double mandate.
Aberdeen South was one of just eight seats that the SNP held in 2024, despite a 27-point swing away from the pro-independence party towards Labour. Anything other than a comfortable hold here would ring major alarm bells for the SNP.
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (running for Holyrood)
For the same reason mentioned above, a by-election could be triggered here if its MP were to win a Holyrood seat in May.
The SNP held onto the seat by the skin of its teeth. Their majority was cut down to a three-figure total due to a 38-point swing towards Keir Starmer’s Labour party.
North East Somerset and Hanham
Jacob Reese Mogg’s former seat. A seat that had been held by the Conservatives since its creation before swinging to Labour in the 2024 election, having benefitted from boundary changes and demographic overspill from Bristol.
The Labour victor of that election, Dan Norris, is currently under investigation for some of the worst crimes imaginable.
This has opened the door to a possible return of the charismatic former leader of the House of Commons. If the ‘Badenoch bounce’ is as real as the Tories claim, then this becomes a must-win by-election for the historic party of the centre-right. Building off a solid foundation of nearly 15% of the vote share LTO, Reform will be rather bullish of their chances.
If the Tories fail to pick up a historically leafy blue wall seat, then this could potentially trigger a complete collapse in the party, cementing Reform’s position as the new official right-wing opposition to Labour.
Gorton and Denton
Another disgraced Labour MP in the firing line. The former health minister lost the Labour whip after having been caught red-handed abusing half of his own party members and, more importantly, his constituents. The latter suggests that he may be on the receiving end of a recall petition.
Andrew Gwynne won the newly formed Manchester city seat rather comfortably in 2024 with a 13,000+ majority. Signs of changing demographics had already begun to show, however, with Labour’s vote share falling 16 points to the benefit of the Greens and Galloway’s Workers party who saw their vote share increase by over 10% each.
With Reform having come second in this seat at the last general election, the possibility of a by-election may be an early indicator of whether or not left-wing voters are willing to stomach a tactical vote for Labour in order to keep out Farage’s men.
Andy Burnham’s sacrificial lamb
It has become Labour’s worst-kept secret that Andy Burnham has ambitions to replace Keir Starmer as leader. The current mayor of Manchester even went as far as publicly announcing his remedies to Labour’s woes at the back end of last year’s conference.
The only issue that both he and the party face is how does he get himself back into parliament? Labour’s abysmal position in the polls now means there are essentially no more safe seats left in the country for them. A possible by-election would be targeted by Reform who know Burnham is their greatest threat. Indeed, opinion polling has consistently shown Burnham to be the most popular Labour figure amongst Reform voters.
There have been some early whispers of potential candidates who may step aside. Last year, The veteran MP for Blackley and Middleton South Graham Stringer was believed to have been considering retirement to make way for Burnham – a rumour he later denied. The MP for Norwich South Clive Lewis has also publicly declared his willingness to step down in order to give Burnham the chance to get back into parliament.
With Labour expecting crushing defeats in Scotland, Wales and London this May, expect the Burnham momentum to keep growing.
Local Election fall outs and Reform defections
The past week has been nothing short of drama. The Tories have seen their atheling Robert Jenrick cross the floor to Reform, closely followed by the MP for Romford Amdrew Rosindell. The collapse in support for the Conservative party will be brutal at this year's local elections which may, in turn, engender a tidal wave of defections to the party.
Now, whilst a defection does not automatically trigger a by-election, some MPs may want to renew their mandate from the public. Such was the case for Douglas Craswell in 2014, after he defected to UKIP.
A ministerial desertion and a want to be the catalyst to Starmer’s collapse is also not out of the question if the near-apocalyptic results being shown in the polls come into fruition this May.
Tips
I will be ‘dutching’ a 10-point spread across the following number of by-elections market:
5.7 points on 5-6 by-elections to be held in 2026 at 4/1
3.2 points on 7-8 by-elections to be held in 2026 at 8/1
1.1 points on 9+ by-elections to be held in 2026 at 25/1
Just under 19 Points profit if one lands.