Is Labour’s domination of Wales coming to an end?

The Senedd (Welsh assembly) elections are on the horizon with many bookies having opened up their markets in the past week. This will be the seventh election since Wales was given its own assembly, having approved Blair’s proposals for one by the smallest of margins (50.3%) via referendum.

The 2026 Senedd elections will have a new look to them. An electoral shake up will see the Welsh assembly move from a more FPTP-dominant electoral system to a more European-style party list system. Indeed, the Welsh assembly had traditionally elected 60 members – 40 of which were via the conventional FPTP Westminster constituencies, with the latter 20 being attributed regionally via a second vote on closed-party lists. From 2026 however, the number of MS will increase to 96 – just 16 of which will be elected via FPTP and an eye-watering 80 of which will be elected via party-list proportional representation.

It is fair to say that Wales has always been a stronghold for Labour. With a strong history of nonconformity, Labour, with its Methodist origins, was the natural successor to the dying Liberal party in Wales. Its dominance was then solidified by the strong trade union movement in post-war Wales. Labour has, in fact, won the most seats in every general election in Wales since 1922. The party has also had its fair share of Welsh political giants, including Nye Bevan, the creator of the NHS.

Unlike their Scottish counterparts, that are often seen as an English party, Welsh Labour has been able to forge itself a distinctly Welsh identity. Indeed, the Welsh Labour party’s socialism is arguably more statist than the traditional co-operative English socialism and has often supported Welsh language initiatives – in contrast to the Conservatives.

However, recent polling has suggested that Labour’s domination of Wales is coming to an end. Whilst a recent Beaufort poll still has the reds two points up, More in Common and Find Out More both have Reform two points ahead whilst YouGov has astonishingly places Plaid Cymru five points clear at the top. Meanwhile, Reform have begun to make inroads in Wales, having won a handful of council by-elections - the most recent of which was in a county that had declared itself “Reform-free” just two weeks earlier.

Following the resignation of long-serving leader Mark Drakeford, Welsh Labour were badly hampered by the scandal of newly-elected leader Vaughan Gething who refused to step down after losing a no-confidence vote in the Welsh assembly.

The bookies’ odds reflect Labour’s downfall, with most having Reform as the EVENS favourite and Labour languishing in third at big odds of 5/1. Plaid Cymru is priced at around 7/4 with most firms.

Labour is now haemorrhaging votes on both sides of the aisle. It faces a real conundrum – double down on its progressivism to hold onto its current voter base or move towards a more populist platform to win back some disaffected voters that have recently turned to Reform. Either way, it’s in trouble.

But is the collapse of Labour in Wales inevitable? The previous Senedd elections seem to suggest otherwise. Indeed, at the height of Boris Johnson’s vaccine bounce, Welsh Labour actually saw a 5% increase in its vote share which translated into a higher seat total. This bucked the trend in the rest of the Brexit-voting regions of the UK that swung heavily from Labour to the Tories.

So why did Welsh Labour outperform their English counterparts? Apart from the obvious incumbency bias that many in power benefitted from during covid, one simple explanation was the difference in comportment between the Welsh and English Remain campaigns. Indeed, whilst the latter had a distinctly anti-English sentiment, with particularly vicious attacks on ‘gammonary’ and working-class culture, one can argue that Welsh Remain conducted a more dignified campaign that portrayed a sense of pride in Welsh culture and history.

Historically, right-wing populist parties have struggled to breakthrough in Wales, compared to England. In fact, UKIP were only ever able to have an MS elected on one occasion when the party won 7 seats in the Senedd back in 2016. This election gave us the return of the legendary Neil Hamilton to elected office. Whilst the other six either quit the party or defected to the Brexit party, Mr Hamilton fought on until the end – the Japanese warrior who carried on the fight when the war was already over.

Welsh politics is unique in the UK due to the strength of its local and independent candidates. In the 2022 local elections, independents won 316 council seats, outperforming all parties bar Labour. In order to monopolise the protest vote, Reform will thus have to compete with a plethora of popular local candidates.

The change in the voting system will be the defining factor of this election, however. A move towards a more proportional representational electoral system will engender a major breakthrough for the less-established parties. With the rise of Reform in all corners of the UK, coupled with the removal of the need for FPTP tactical voting, the Welsh Labour government may have signed its death warrant.

Tip: if you don’t fancy taking the EVS on Reform most seats, I’d recommend waiting on a price for a Labour – Plaid Cymru coalition government. Under PR, Reform will fall short of a majority, leading to the formation of a progressive alliance to prevent the “far right” from entering power.

Best Price (EVS) @starsportsbet and @williamhill.

Written by Julien Yvon (Election analyst)